Archive for May 15th, 2007

May
15
2007

Chicago bullpens

3:12 pm — 

Sal Baxamusa of The Hardball Times did an interesting piece called “How are closers being leveraged?”

In it, Baxamusa took a look at the leverage index (LI) of bullpens in baseball. Basically, LI is a measure of how critical a certain situation is. Essentially, he’s exploring the ways managers use their bullpens and how often the relievers enter “critical” (game-changing) situations.

What he found was that the White Sox and Cubs have the highest LI in all of baseball. In other words, as Baxamusa said, “Chicago fans of both persuasions are being treated to exciting games this year, even if they don’t always come out on the winning end.”

Matt Thornton
Matt Thornton is being thrown into more critical situations than any other AL reliever. (AP Photo)

Baxamusa also took a look at specific pitchers who enter the games in situations that are most critical. What I found interesting is that five out of the top six pitchers on the list are closers. Trevor Hoffman is No. 1, with a gLI (gLI is merely the leverage index of a situation the reliever inherits) of 2.34. The higher the LI is over 1, the more critical of a situation the pitcher is inheriting. Matt Thornton of the White Sox is No. 2, followed by Joakim Soria, Salomon Torres, Huston Street and Todd Jones.

Thornton, of course, is the only non-closer in the top six. How do we interpret this? As I said, the White Sox lead the league in high-leverage situations, so his appearance might just indicate that Ozzie Guillen looks to him when the outcome of the game hangs in the balance.

So far, it isn’t working out. Thornton’s ERA is 5.40, despite pitching six straight scoreless appearances. It’s possible, of course, that Thornton is simply the only lefty that Guillen trusts to come in. Andrew Sisco and Boone Logan are Guillen’s other lefty options, and neither one is particularly compelling.

There are other possibilities as to why the White Sox have a middle reliever in the mix of pitchers with the highest gLI. Perhaps Guillen is leaving his starters in too long and then needs a middle reliever to clean it up. Or maybe Guillen is just plain misusing his bullpen. Any thoughts on this, readers?

The Cubs, who have the second highest LI in baseball, have no individual pitcher in the top 10. That’s a little strange, but it seems to me that it may actually be a good thing. It may indicate that Lou Piniella isn’t putting the toughest situations on one pitcher’s lap and is playing more to the situation.

I’d be curious to know why you might think this is so, as well.

Just, out.

May
15
2007

Are the Tigers better this year?

2:35 pm — 
Jim Leyland
Who are we? The Wildcats! Who we gonna beat? The Wildcats! (AP Photo)

No. They aren’t.

I’m not sure why so many people think they are. In Joe Morgan’s ESPN Chat Wrap today, this question was posed and answered:

Mike (Fire Millen): Great interview with Shef on Sunday night! How far can he lead the Tigers this season?

Joe Morgan: I think the Tigers have as good a chance as anyone to defend their AL championship. They’ll be a better team at the end of this season than they were last year. A big reason is Sheffield, but another reason is the young pitchers have matured and will be better. Right now, they’ve got Zumaya on the DL, Rogers is out, Bonderman had to miss a start, etc. If they’re as healthy in Sept. as they were last year, they’ll be great. Boston is the team to beat right now, though. Boston’s pitching has been the best.

Joe Morgan: But I’m still not as convinced their offense is as good as it should be.

Ignoring the fact that he thinks Detroit will be a better team at the end of this season despite the injuries he laid out, how can he (or anyone) justify that the Tigers are the team to beat?

Joe Morgan isn’t the only one. Jim Molony argued the Tigers would get second in the AL Central but said they’d be a better team than they were last year.

The Tigers won 95 games last year and finished a game out of first. They also finished the season on a five-game losing streak, which cost them the division. Even so, Read the rest of this entry »

May
15
2007

The King is back

12:53 pm — 
Felix Hernandez
Welcome back, Felix. (AP Photo)

Tonight’s Angels-Mariners game is one I’ll definitely be watching. Felix Hernandez is expected to make his first start since his elbow injury.

When Felix took the mound earlier this year, he was overshadowed heavily by Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was making his first appearance at Fenway Park. Well, I have a feeling the tables are turned, and the opposing pitcher is once again not getting his due.

Kelvim Escobar has quietly put together an excellent season for the Angels, and he will square off against King Felix tonight.

Escobar is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA. He went the distance against Cleveland last week, striking out nine hitters.

Neither offense is particularly potent, so this game has pitcher’s duel written all over it.

It oughtta be a good one.

Just, out.