Fantasy owners have thrown their arms up on Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano and it’s well-deserved. He’s just been awful all year.

His 5.61 ERA is killing fantasy owners. Of his 10 starts this year, only three have been quality. Even the strikeout numbers are gone — a bad sign for any pitcher.

Here’s what some other analysts have said about Zambrano.

Carlos Gomez of the Hardball Times did an excellent analysis of Zambrano’s arm slot this season, which is significantly lower than it was in 2005.

Gomez offers up this possible reason for the drop in arm slot:

One of the clearest indications of a pitcher who is struggling with shoulder soreness/pain is a drop in his arm slot. From a personal standpoint, I know that (when I threw overhand) when my shoulder was hurting me, I would tend to lower my elbow in order to ‘protect the shoulder.’

Rob Neyer agrees.

…it’s something of a truism in baseball that when a pitcher drops his arm, he’s doing it to avoid pain. So I’ll say this right now: Zambrano might not be healthy, and if he’s not healthy, the Cubs are finished. Because Marquis and Ted Lilly can’t carry the team.

It’s funny how we expect established position players who open the season in a funk to get better and bring their numbers back to where they should be. But it’s not the same for pitchers.

For example, take Jake Peavy’s 2006. He won the ERA title in 2004, was the strikeout champ in 2005, and then had an awful season. Now he’s back to Cy Young form in 2007. But that 2006 is just sort of sticking out.

Zambrano came up in today’s ESPN Chat Wrap with Ron Shandler.

Kevin (Lincoln, NE): Carlos Zambrano… do I wait it out, or do I trade him for less than he is worth, and what exactly is he worth? He is KILLING me!!!

SportsNation Ron Shandler: As long as he is putting up numbers that are kllilng [sic] you, you HAVE to do something. Keeping him is too painful. Trading him might only serve to put his potential upside onto another team. But I think that is a risk you have to take. Given all the innings on his arm, what we’re seeing could be real. Minimize the damage. Do a massive sell job and take what you can get.

A lot of people have been saying that the same bug that caught up to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood is now catching up to Zambrano. I think that is kind of ridiculous.

I also think that the arm slot issue, while certainly disturbing, might be a bit rash. I give the Cubs enough credit to notice a mechanical flaw of this scale.

I think if fantasy owners can still find decent value on Zambrano on the market, then they should absolutely pull the trigger — if only for the injury risk. Otherwise, I’d stick it out a while longer because you can’t trade someone you put that much stock in for so little.

Just, out.

Got some mailbag questions today:

Tom, Champaign: I was offered B.J. Upton and Mike Lowell for Andruw Jones. Should I do it?

This is a clear example of a guy trying to sell high and buy low. Upton is good, but he’s not as good as he’s played. James Holzhauer wrote a nice piece on him Tuesday, discussing how his batting average has dropped 70 points and won’t stop there. This isn’t a bad offer, but not one I’d take now. Jones will turn it on soon and when he does there are few outfielders that are better.

Jared, Champaign: The White Sox bats are alive and John Danks is looking great. Any chance you’ll reconsider their fourth place finish?

As great as the White Sox have looked these last few days, I’m not prepared to mark them for any different of a finish than I predicted at the beginning of April. The White Sox have a -8 run differential, and as you know, this tells us a lot more about how they will finish than their current record does (they are three games over their expected W-L). Additionally, the Sox are still behind two teams I feel are just generally better than them and ahead of the Twins, who actually do have a positive run differential.

Thanks for the questions guys.

I try and answer all questions I receive. You can send them to djust2@uiuc.edu with your name and hometown.

Just, out.

It was reported Wednesday that Tampa Bay outfielder Elijah Dukes threatened to kill his wife and sent a photo of a handgun to her phone.

Dukes has a history of domestic violence and his wife, NiShea Gilbert, a middle school teacher with whom Dukes has two children, filed a restraining order against him.

The incident is still in the “not 100 percent proven” phase now, but Dukes’ history and the gun text message seem to validate the claim.

The Devil Rays and Major League Baseball have a chance to send a message to (the many) ballplayers who have and do engage in this sort of behavior.

If what Dukes’ wife says is true, he needs to be cut from the team. And he can’t then be allowed to re-sign with another team.

The message would be loud and clear.

Just, out.

Baseball Prospectus writer Bryan Smith is doing a series on team scouting directors and forecasting their probable picks in 2007.

Under scouting director Duane Shaffer, Smith correctly calls the White Sox farm system “volatile,” which seems like an understatement considering it went from the best in the league when Kenny Williams took over to nearly the worst today.

The White Sox have the 25th pick in the draft in every round and have not received any additional picks, or given any away.

Based on Sox drafting tendencies, Smith predicts the White Sox will take Nick Schmidt, Michael Burgess, Kyle Russell, or Kevin Ahrens.

Here’s a little background on these guys.

Schmidt is a college left-handed pitcher at Arkansas. He is 9-3 with the Razorbacks this year with a 3.08 ERA in 16 starts. He has struck out nearly a batter an inning (101 Ks in 198 IP) but has walked 46 hitters as well.

Burgess is still in high school but is ranked 16th on Keith Law’s top 100 prospects list. He’s an outfielder whose name has been added to a select list by joining Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas and Bo Jackson as the only players to clear the 60-foot high wall in center field at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota. Baseball America wrote up a nice piece on him here.

Russell is a right fielder at Texas and has started all 56 games for them this season. His averages are .348/.457/.854. Those are pretty staggering. He is a teammate of Jordan Danks, who is the brother of White Sox pitcher John Danks.

Ahrens is a third baseman who is a senior in high school. I couldn’t find much information on him, but he is ranked 55th on Law’s top 100.

The draft is on June 7th and will be televised on ESPN2.

Just, out.