And Ken Griffey Jr. is on his team now! I must be at the nexus of the universe!

Anyway, Dusty Baker is back at the helm of a Major League ball club, and I’m cringing at the thought.

You’d think a guy who said that walks clog the bases would be disqualified from any and all management positions in baseball. I thought people that said things like that were limited to analyzing games for us on TV.

I guess they do both, now.

Anyway, the Reds do A LOT of walking, and Baker isn’t going to take to it very kindly.

Here’s Keith Law with the rest of that terrific Baker quote:

So Baker likes to work pitchers hard and doesn’t seem overly concerned when they walk too many opposing hitters. In fact, he has said walks are an overrated part of offense.

“I think walks are overrated unless you can run,” Baker said in an MLB.com story in March 2004. “If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. … Who have been the champions the last seven, eight years? Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks?”

This evinces, in my view, a lack of understanding of how runs are scored — and of the importance not just of getting on base, but of plate discipline in general. And in fact, the two years before Baker made those comments, the Yankees did lead the American League in walks, just as they did in 1997 and 1998, the latter being the year in which they won 114 games and led the league in runs scored.

See, this is exactly why the Reds can’t compete. It’s not because they’re in a small market or because they don’t have talent. No, it’s because they make bad personnel decisions. They’re like the Chicago Bears in that regard. But the Bears at least draft well.

The Reds are in rebuilding mode, or at least they should be. This is a team that hasn’t finished above .500 since 2000. Only a few teams can say that, and besides maybe the Devil Rays, it’s for the same reasons as the Reds.

Baker is notorious for his inability to develop young talent. This is why after winning the division with the Cubs in 2003 the team finished in third, fourth and last in the division after each of the next three seasons.

Baker’s .527 career winning percentage is probably what lured the Reds into giving him the reins, but Baker is usually the guy that comes in and takes over a veteran team that is already suited for the playoffs — like the Cubs in 2003. When it didn’t work out, things got uglier and uglier.

Coincidentally, Rob Neyer brought up how much good a manager can be to a team in his ESPN chat wrap yesterday:

I would guess that maybe 10 percent of managers are capable of making a significant positive impact, but 25 percent are capable of making a significant negative impact. So if you’re the Yankees, you just have to guard against hiring one of those 25-percenters (and yes, I just pulled those numbers out of my nether regions).

Keith Law, again talking on the subject, echoed this sentiment on ESPNNews shortly after the announcement:

I think we really overrate how much good a manager can do…A good manager might be worth 3-4 wins, maybe five if he’s really good with his bullpen like Bob Melvin is, tops. But more likely a good manager is worth an extra two wins a season. But a bad manager? Not only could he be worth five or eight fewer wins…but i think a bad manager could really hurt you going forward because (he) can really retard the development of your prospects.

Speaking of which, the Reds are busting with young talent. Top pitching prospect Homer Bailey will be a regular starter next season, and Johnny Cueto, another top prospect is waiting in line after him. Additionally, the bats of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will make big impacts in the middle of the lineup. There is more than enough talent here to win an NL Central title — with the right person in charge.

Forgetting what ESPN analysts have to say, I asked the one Reds fan I know what he thought about Baker. His response?

So far, 98% of Reds fans are pissed over the move.

Way to get the fans back. This was their chance, the Bengals suck, ND
football is awful, UC & UK basketball is down. They could have been the
talk of the town. Instead…ummmmm, not so much.

Thanks for those inspiring words, John.

To be sure, it won’t be long before Baker is back in the broadcast booth, telling us the same wrong things that he tells his players.

Just, out.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 17th, 2007 at 9:07 am and is filed under Reds, Dusty Baker, Slugfest, Bad Managing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.