Does Craig Monroe help the Cubs…at all? (AP Photo)

The Cubs did a little — and I stress a little — to bolster their playoff roster today by acquiring outfielder Craig Monroe from the Tigers.

The Cubs sent cash and a player to be named in exchange for the slumping Tiger outfielder.

Monroe had been designated for assignment last Friday.

Cubs manager Lou Piniella has been saying for weeks how desperately he wants an extra right-handed hitter off the bench, and they may have found just that.

Against lefties, Monroe is hitting .302 this season with a considerable .542 slugging percentage. Considering his season batting average is .222, it doesn’t take much to realize how awful he’s hitting against righties. I’ll just say that the Mendoza-line waved bye-bye to him a while ago.

I was never convinced Piniella “really” needed the extra bat. I mean, he’s already misusing Felix Pie on the left side, so I don’t expect much from Monroe.

Jim Hendry, though, sees plenty of upside:

I think it gives us a good balance. It was just one of those situations where you couldn’t pass up a guy who has already been there and helped lead a club to the postseason. We’ve had our ups and downs against lefties. It gives Lou some options here that we didn’t have before by just adding one good batter against left-handed pitching.

Rob Neyer mentioned this week that the Cubs would be better off promoting right-handed catcher Geovany Soto to give the Cubs a player off the bench and one actually worthy of being the team’s backup and future starter.

But the Cubs just keep doing what they always do: Why bring in talent from within when 29 other teams have it?

I’m not even going to touch that one.

Just, out.

There are a lot of good stories in baseball this year. Some bad ones, too. But lots of good, like Rick Ankiel’s comeback and Tom Glavine’s 300th win.

I think the story of the 2007 Diamondbacks is interesting, to say the least. And it would certainly be a good story if they manage to hang on and win the division.

Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times had this to say in a story called “No Mirage in Arizona” on Monday:

Many thought (the D-Backs) could be this year’s breakout squad. Here at THT, for instance they were the staff’s consensus to take the division. They had a fantastic ace in Brandon Webb, had retained former Mr. Everything Randy Johnson, and had an organization littered with promising young talent.

But even those optimists have been surprised. Sure, they’re winning, but they ain’t going about it in a particularly healthy way. At the moment I write this, they have scored 18 fewer runs than they’ve allowed, 537-553. Hmmm…

OK, let’s go back to Sabermetrics 101. There’s supposed to be some sort of relationship between runs scored and runs allowed. You can use some variation on the old Pythagoras formula to figure out how many wins a team “should” have based on its record. And you know, teams that can’t score as many runs as they give up really shouldn’t be on pace to win 90 games. Differences between Real W/L and Pythag W/L are dismissed as mere chance. Heck, in B-ref’s expanded schedules, the site flatly categorizes any variation as luck.

Yet the D-backs this year have done quite the job mocking sabermetric orthodoxy. Not only have they floated over their ordained record, but they’ve teased people into thinking they’ll regress. After bursting out to a 46-35 start (while getting outscored all the while), they fell apart and dropped 13 of their next 17. “A-ha! Mathematical certainly [sic] will not be mocked or [sic] long!” Well, accept [sic] in this case that is. Since then the D-backs have won 21 of 26. Sure they’ve outscored their opponents in that stretch, but only 140-116. They’re still wildly exceeding expectations.

Jaffe goes on to explain that a team can defy Pythagoras by performing extremely well in one-run games. But that isn’t the case with Arizona; it’s just not significant enough.

The trick is discovering that Arizona’s bullpen is, in Jaffe’s words, “bipolar.” Their big five relievers (Joe Valverde, Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz and Doug Slaten) have a collective ERA of 2.76.

The rest of the bullpen has an ERA of a horrific 7.09.

This causes the team to lose games by ungodly deficits and win tons of close ones.

Before I continue, let me just say that Jaffe’s article is a must-read.

I also liked the Diamondbacks before the season, but I picked the Padres to come out of the division. The Diamondbacks are in the bottom five of most offensive categories, and the Padres are as bad, if not worse.

What’s interesting to me, though, is that the Padres have a better rotation and a bullpen that’s as good as anyone’s.

The Padres are three games under their expected W-L as it stands, and they don’t seem like they’re going to make up that ground anytime soon.

I’m rooting for the Diamondbacks now anyway.

Just, out.

Sal Baxamusa of The Hardball Times did an interesting piece called “How are closers being leveraged?”

In it, Baxamusa took a look at the leverage index (LI) of bullpens in baseball. Basically, LI is a measure of how critical a certain situation is. Essentially, he’s exploring the ways managers use their bullpens and how often the relievers enter “critical” (game-changing) situations.

What he found was that the White Sox and Cubs have the highest LI in all of baseball. In other words, as Baxamusa said, “Chicago fans of both persuasions are being treated to exciting games this year, even if they don’t always come out on the winning end.”

Matt Thornton is being thrown into more critical situations than any other AL reliever. (AP Photo)

Baxamusa also took a look at specific pitchers who enter the games in situations that are most critical. What I found interesting is that five out of the top six pitchers on the list are closers. Trevor Hoffman is No. 1, with a gLI (gLI is merely the leverage index of a situation the reliever inherits) of 2.34. The higher the LI is over 1, the more critical of a situation the pitcher is inheriting. Matt Thornton of the White Sox is No. 2, followed by Joakim Soria, Salomon Torres, Huston Street and Todd Jones.

Thornton, of course, is the only non-closer in the top six. How do we interpret this? As I said, the White Sox lead the league in high-leverage situations, so his appearance might just indicate that Ozzie Guillen looks to him when the outcome of the game hangs in the balance.

So far, it isn’t working out. Thornton’s ERA is 5.40, despite pitching six straight scoreless appearances. It’s possible, of course, that Thornton is simply the only lefty that Guillen trusts to come in. Andrew Sisco and Boone Logan are Guillen’s other lefty options, and neither one is particularly compelling.

There are other possibilities as to why the White Sox have a middle reliever in the mix of pitchers with the highest gLI. Perhaps Guillen is leaving his starters in too long and then needs a middle reliever to clean it up. Or maybe Guillen is just plain misusing his bullpen. Any thoughts on this, readers?

The Cubs, who have the second highest LI in baseball, have no individual pitcher in the top 10. That’s a little strange, but it seems to me that it may actually be a good thing. It may indicate that Lou Piniella isn’t putting the toughest situations on one pitcher’s lap and is playing more to the situation.

I’d be curious to know why you might think this is so, as well.

Just, out.

Who are we? The Wildcats! Who we gonna beat? The Wildcats! (AP Photo)

No. They aren’t.

I’m not sure why so many people think they are. In Joe Morgan’s ESPN Chat Wrap today, this question was posed and answered:

Mike (Fire Millen): Great interview with Shef on Sunday night! How far can he lead the Tigers this season?

Joe Morgan: I think the Tigers have as good a chance as anyone to defend their AL championship. They’ll be a better team at the end of this season than they were last year. A big reason is Sheffield, but another reason is the young pitchers have matured and will be better. Right now, they’ve got Zumaya on the DL, Rogers is out, Bonderman had to miss a start, etc. If they’re as healthy in Sept. as they were last year, they’ll be great. Boston is the team to beat right now, though. Boston’s pitching has been the best.

Joe Morgan: But I’m still not as convinced their offense is as good as it should be.

Ignoring the fact that he thinks Detroit will be a better team at the end of this season despite the injuries he laid out, how can he (or anyone) justify that the Tigers are the team to beat?

Joe Morgan isn’t the only one. Jim Molony argued the Tigers would get second in the AL Central but said they’d be a better team than they were last year.

The Tigers won 95 games last year and finished a game out of first. They also finished the season on a five-game losing streak, which cost them the division. Even so, Read the rest of this entry »

I have been out of town for the last three days so the blog went quiet for awhile. Let’s get back into the swing of things.

This comment came today and inspired this post:

“Do you have a man crush on Jake Peavy? Just wondering. That being said, when do you think is the right time to start taking possible young stars (Jeremy Hermida, Conor Jackson, Howie Kendrick, et al.). Additionally, do you think there is a better chance of doing well with young pitchers or young position players?” — Dan Johnson

The answer to the first question is yes. Yes I absolutely do.

The answer to the second question is a little trickier. A lot depends on the type of league you are in. An AL-only or NL-only league will almost force you to seek young talent. In a standard mixed rotisserie league, it may not even be necessary to scout the rookies and prospects, but it can’t hurt to have an eye out.

The players you mentioned, Jeremy Hermida, Conor Jackson and Howie Kendrick, are all part of 2007’s sophomore class. Often times, a second-year player experiences what is known as a “sophomore slump.” I don’t anticipate any of the aforementioned to slump in 2007, because none of them played that spectacularly lsat season. Here are some 2007 sophomores to look at:

• Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL — He didn’t get quite the number of games he needed in 2005, so he was a rookie last year. As I’ve said before, I’m not the biggest fan of Cecil’s kid, but he sure has the same sort of power. Some patience and weightloss are all he needs to be a top-tier fantasy choice. I don’t think that weight is going anywhere, though.
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS — Zimmerman finished just four points out of first for NL Rookie of the Year. He’s certainly a special player, and definitely one that will be around for the long-term. His offense was remarkably solid for a rookie, and critics say his bat isn’t even his best attribute. He’s a future Gold Glover.
• Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA — The kid that beat Zimmerman for ROY must have done something right. Even if his bat regresses, he can help on the basepaths. 50+ steals are tough to come by. The Marlins offense will continue to improve which can only mean good things for the young shortstop.
• Nick Markakis, OF, BAL — Markakis was on every analyst’s radar for AL ROY before 2006. He came out of the gate slowly, hitting well below his potential in the first half. But he rebounded and hit .311 after the break. He’ll be a nice sleeper on draft day because most owners won’t look at his split stats.
• Justin Verlander, SP, DET — The hard-throwing Verlander made a case for Cy Young in his rookie campaign, but faded a bit in the second half. He still took the AL ROY award. He’s a prime candidate for a sophomore slump, so be careful taking him too early. Keeper leaguers should still look to grab him because he is still maturing.
• Jonathan Papelbon, SP, BOS — Everybody is nervous about Papelbon. Boston’s stud closer will be moving into a starting role this season — the role he was brought up to play. I think he’ll be able to reproduce his success out of the bullpen and will make a quality selection when other owners are looking the other way.
• Dan Uggla, 2B, FLA — A prime choice for massive regression. I’m avoiding him, you probably should too.
• Matt Cain, SP, SF — His 2006 inconsistency isn’t uncommon for a rookie pitcher. Don’t give up on him. He had almost 180 strikeouts last year but gave up far too many walks. He kept his opponent’s average at .224, though. Once he masters that control he’ll be a fantasy ace.
• Andre Ethier, OF, LAD — Ethier came out of nowhere to have a relatively successful rookie season. That’s a cause for concern. He’ll probably fall in line and offer up a mediocre 2007.
• Howie Kendrick, 2B, ANA — Can’t stress enough how good I think this kid will be. He has 30-30 potential and will probably break out in 2007 or ‘08. He’s a must-own in any keeper format.
• Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA — He was another guy on the preseason ROY radar that just didn’t pan out. The upside on him remains tremendously high, so take a flier on him in the later rounds and see if he can make an impact.
• Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI — Jackson sits in the middle of a lineup that might just come out of its shell this season. The talent is certainly there, and he is capable of hitting .300-25-100-100 already. Pretty impressive.

There are some other noteworthy sophomores, like Josh Johnson, Mike Jacobs, Jered Weaver and Takashi Saito. Outside of Weaver, though, I have marked the rest for a sophomore slump. Saito has save value and Johnson could work his way up to a #1 starter in the future, but I probably won’t target either of them on draft day.

Young talent is a tricky thing. The 2006 rookies are an exception to most seeasons, as it was a very strong rookie class. Therefore, I feel a lot more comfortable taking them this season. The 2007 rookie class will probably not get as much ink, but that’s a blog for another day.

Tomorrow I’ll get back to my positional projections and work on third basemen.

Just, out.

It is important to remember how important value is when drafting. Some people draft to fill their roster and others draft for value. I and most others find greater success using the latter method. Of course, filling your team is a priority, but situations arise that dictate a course of action.

Let’s say you are in a draft and were fortunate to have gotten Albert Pujols with your first pick. Four rounds later, Lance Berkman remains undrafted. Now, you haven’t taken any pitchers yet, so you feel compelled to take a pitcher before the run starts. Obviously, this situation is exaggerated and hypothetical, but it’s not unlike the situation you can and will find yourself in. So, do you take the pitcher and move on, content that your team is beginning to round out? I wouldn’t.

This is where value comes in. A player like Berkman may not have first round value this year, like he did in 2006, but he is far too good to be falling to the fifth round. You’re getting, arguably, a top 5 first baseman and easily a top 30 fantasy player with some pick after 40. He’s worth more to you there than a starting pitcher or anybody, really.

On the other hand, you must also beware of taking a player too soon, who has less value than the spot you’re drafting. Let’s reuse the same situation and say you need a pitcher, because a run on pitching began in the middle of the third round and you don’t want to miss out. Your rankings tell you that John Smoltz is the best available pitcher. But, I can tell you that taking Smoltz in this spot would be devastating. Make sure you get your pick’s worth. The 10th pick of the draft should garner somebody of top 10 talent, while the 50th pick of the draft should bag a player of top 50 talent. Look for this while you are drafting and focus your early rounds on taking the best player available.

Remember, having quality depth at a given position is a good problem to have.

So, that said, here is a list of a few players who I feel are particularly overvalued/undervalued:

Overvalued:

• Todd Helton, 1B, COL — Helton is always taken within the top ten or so first basemen, but for the last few seasons he’s come nowhere close to being worth that high of a pick. His numbers are declining, and while I think he is a very good player who can still help fantasy teams, be careful you don’t take him too soon.
• Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC — Okay Cubs fans, let’s go. Soriano had a career year in 2006. There’s no other way for me to say it. What this should mean to fantasy owners is that they can’t expect that level of production again. Soriano may still have first round value, but I wouldn’t put him in my overall top 5. Watch out for a guy after signing a huge contract.
• Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI — Rollins is right on the cusp of top 5 shortstop status. He’s a fine choice, just don’t go overboard on him. His batting average and on-base percentage are pretty low and he is the definition of a streaky hitter. He’s an asset with stolen bases, though.
• Adam Dunn, OF, CIN — If you can compensate for a .230 batting average on your team, then by all means take Dunn. The power and production are there, but you really need to know what you are getting into when you take him.
• Juan Pierre, OF, LAD — Pierre stole 58 bases last year. Wow, that’s amazing. He also had an on-base percentage under .330 and drove in just 40 runs. I owned Pierre last season and he might have single-handedly cost me a few points in batting average and OBP, but he gained me a handful in stolen bases. Again, just know what you’re drafting.
• Gary Matthews Jr., OF, ANA — Matthews may have gotten one of the most absurd deals in baseball history. He’s a career .263 hitter with a career .336 OBP. Yet the Angels threw $50 million at him because he made one of the most remarkable catches in baseball history.
• Jon Garland, SP, CHW — I just needed to even the score. There you go, Cubs fans.
• Closers — Closers are generally overvalued. Their role on your team is to get saves. That’s it. One category. I’ve seen closers go in the first and second round before, which is truly amazing. Sure, they help bring your WHIP and ERA down, but that responsibility is a distant second to getting saves. It is also the position that displays the most turnover from year to year. There are a handful that have held the same job for more than three seasons. The rest come and go. Don’t waste a high pick on that sort of variance.

Undervalued:

• Jake Peavy, SP, SD — Okay, so my pick for NL Cy Young had an off year. He’ll be passed over by bitter former owners and owners that don’t have a clue. Pounce on him.
• Ben Sheets, SP, MIL — Sheets has been remarkable in the game he has been healthy enough to pitch. His injury concerns will scare owners away, but he had a healthy second half, and all signs post to a healthy 2007. He can make a case for Cy Young.
• Troy Glaus, 3B, TOR — Glaus’ numbers are remarkably similar to Adam Dunn’s, so his spot here may raise an eyebrow. The difference is this: If their numbers are similar, why is Dunn being taken so many rounds earlier? When you factor in position scarcity, Glaus is a nice pick in the late-middle rounds.
• Joe Crede, 3B, CHW — Where’s the love? 3B has power bats, so Crede gets pushed to the back. I’d be happy waiting until the later rounds and grabbing Crede for tremendous value.
• Kelvim Escobar, SP, ANA — Escobar didn’t land many wins in 2006, but his ERA, WHIP, and strikeout numbers were solid. He makes a terrific back end starter for any team.
• Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA — The sky is still the limit for King Felix despite his bumpy 2006. Take a flier on him and see what he can do. I have a feeling most people will look the other way.

Understand that any of the players on either list could just as easily be on the opposite list if their value changed. In the 7th or 8th round go ahead and take Pierre, that’s good value. On the other hand, you lose a guy like Peavy’s value if you go after him too early. These decisions are what make or break your fantasy team.

Just, out.