Archive for the 'Billy Goat' Category

October
2
2007

Forget history; Cubs’ fate in own hands

7:04 pm — 

Sorry, forgot to re-copy my Cubs column from our special section. I’ve added some links for your enjoyment as well:

The Chicago Cubs have history working for and against them as they prepare for their postseason run.

Of course, we are all too familiar with the forces working against them: Nary a day goes by that we aren’t reminded of the Curse of the Billy Goat wreaking havoc on Leon Durham in 1984, or Steve Bartman preventing Moises Alou from making a catch with one out in the eighth inning of the 2003 NLCS.

What so many people don’t know, though, is how much the Cubs have going for them. And history, for better or for worse, might just smile upon the North Siders this year.

Let’s flash back to 2006 for a quick minute. The Cardinals are 80-70 on Sept. 20 and lose their next six games. They back into the playoffs with just 83 victories, smoke the Padres in the NLDS, squeeze by the Mets 4-3 in the NLCS, and swiftly tame the Tigers in the World Series. Only the 63-victory Dodgers of the strike-shortened 1981 season won
fewer regular season games and went on to win the title.

The 2005 White Sox limped into the playoffs without much momentum and went on to an 11-1 postseason. Perhaps Billy Beane was on to something when he said the playoffs are almost entirely luck.

Only once since the introduction of the wild card has the winningest team gone on to win the World Series, and that was the 1998 Yankees — arguably the best team in baseball history.

OK, now let’s slowly bring ourselves back to the present. As of Sunday, only two teams in the National League playoff picture have a better run differential than the Cubs, and that’s the Padres and Rockies. The Rockies won, so the Cubs won’t have to deal with them until the NLCS, or at all.

The Cubs will be facing the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, and as far as I can tell, Chicago stacks up best against Arizona.

The D-backs have had a penchant for winning very close games and being blown out regularly. This is due, in large part, because the Snakes have such awful starting pitching. Brandon Webb is their only weapon in the rotation, and he’ll almost certainly start games one and four. The rest of the rotation (Doug Davis, 4.25 ERA; Livan Hernandez, 4.93; Micah Owings, 4.30; and Yusmeiro Petit, 5.02) includes, as the ERAs indicate, less than stellar options.

The Cubs will need to jump on Arizona’s starters to prevent the league’s best bullpen from shutting them down in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Some more Alfonso Soriano leadoff home runs would go a long way to help that cause.

But if there’s one thing, above all else, that the Cubs absolutely have to do if they want to have any chance of winning this thing, it’s to make good decisions. That starts with Lou Piniella.

I’ve watched with great admiration the way Piniella has handled the bullpen, and I hope he doesn’t change a thing. Carlos Marmol has been working the seventh and eighth innings instead of serving as the team’s closer, even though he’s the best reliever in the bullpen. This is a significant step for a manager nowadays, as most tend to designate the best reliever specifically for “saves.”

I respect Piniella for making that choice — it’s far more important to have the team’s best reliever preserving close games and small leads before the final three outs.

On the other hand, Piniella has made several personnel decisions that the most casual of baseball fans would call questionable.

The Cubs’ skipper may have felt some pressure to start Jason Kendall and Steve Trachsel during the regular season because they were specifically acquired to help down the stretch, but to start them now would be catastrophic. Neither player carries the numbers necessary to justify being in the major leagues, let alone starting (or playing) during the playoffs. Geovany Soto has certainly already deemed himself worthy enough of full-time starting duties behind the plate.

The other area of concern is the use of Craig Monroe, another midseason acquisition. Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry brought the Tigers outfielder to the Cubs to address the team’s need for a right-handed hitter with power. Given his splits against right- and left-handed pitching, Monroe has no business ever facing a righty. He has a very specific skill set, and Piniella needs to limit him to it.

History won’t be working against the Cubs when the playoffs begin on Wednesday. They control their own destiny.
Chicago has a great chance to bring another World Series title home, and if Piniella manages properly, the Cubs will enjoy a lengthy postseason.

If not, well, we can always blame a curse.

Just, out.