Just wanted to quickly comment on the 2008 NL Central race. It’s never too soon, right?

Most of the Cubs’ offseason decisions will be the responsibility of new ownership, so it’s difficult to predict whether the team will improve. What we do know is that the team’s core of Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Zambrano are in place.

The team also has a lot more potentially going for them in Rich Hill and Geovany Soto. Hill already displayed his talent over the course of a full season, but Soto’s production as a catcher should be big.

I hope the Cubs give Felix Pie the starting job in center next year, but given that it’s the Cubs, they’ll probably look elsewhere. If they do decide to do this, they have to trade Pie. Keeping him around and turning him into Matt Murton would be devastating.

The team will have many more decisions, too, regarding the futures of Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, Daryle Ward, and others.

Overall, I certainly don’t think the Cubs will be any worse, but we’ll have to wait and see — the Cubs have proven me wrong before.

Not being worse may not be enough to win anymore, because the Brewers are certainly not getting worse.

Just, out.

The NL MVP race has generated a lot of discussion, both in this space and others.

It’s funny, there really is not much arguing going on about any of the AL races — MVP, CY, or RoY. Sure, there are some interesting options, but those races have pretty much been decided.

But in the NL, besides the Cy Young winner, the races are open for Rookie of the Year and MVP.

So, let’s take a look at the two candidates for this year’s NL Rookie of the Year, because each makes a very compelling argument. I’ll use, for now, the general criteria for the voters:

Player………………HR…RBI…..R……BB……SB…….BA……OBP…..SLG
Ryan Braun……………34…97….91……29……15……..324…..370…….634
Troy Tulowitzki………24…99…104…..57……7………291…..359…..480

There are two X factors at play here. Braun only had 451 at bats, making his case that much better in many ways (hurting it in others, more on that later).

The second X factor is defense. Braun committed 26 fielding errors in just 113 games. His fielding percentage is a lowly .895.

And take a look at these THT fielding stats. Braun’s RZR (Revised Zone Rating, or the number of balls hit into his zone that he successfully converted into an out) is .562, a good 40 points less than the next worst in all of the National League. (And for reference, it’s 60 points worse than the lowest RZR in the American League, held by Akinori Iwamura.

There’s certainly something to be said for being the worst fielder in the league, by far. Tulowitzki’s defense ranks him near the best in the league, something to the tune of fifth best infielder in the NL — maybe better depending on what defensive rankings you’re using.

I’m not smart enough nor do I have time enough to calculate how many runs Braun cost the Brewers, but I can say with a fair amount of certainty (being a Ben Sheets and Dave Bush fantasy owner) that he cost them (and me!) more than a couple of Ws.

Quick blog intermission: Prince Fielder plays in the same infield as Braun. You’ll see Fielder’s name just down the list from Braun if you refer to that THT fielding stats page again. The Brewers missed out on the NL Central by two games, and damn it all if that’s not the most identifiable, most fixable reason.

Anyway, with some much-needed help from James Holzhauer over at Results Disoriented, I could not find any defensive ratings that put Tulowitzki at less than +20 runs and Braun any higher than -20. In some cases, Braun was much, much lower.

Anyway, the question remains: How do we deduct from Braun’s offensive dominance to compensate for his defensive woes. Since VORP is essentially a measure of how many runs a player contributed offensively over a replacement player, we can use it to adjust for the defensive contributions, or lack thereof.

If we were to use +20 for Tulo and -20 for Braun (again, there were ranges of defensive output, but nothing worse for Tulo or better for Braun), their VORPs come out to 57 and 37, respectively. It’s funny, Braun’s VORP is 57 and Tulo’s is 37, and the 40-point swing simply reverses their position on the totem pole.

There are other equally unscientific ways to calculate this.

If I were to use a stat like THT’s win shares, Tulo comes out slightly higher, only because he played those extra 50 games. THT also created a win share percentage, which accommodates for playing time — and not surprisingly, Braun blows Tulo out of the water there. Braun did, in fact, create nearly three more runs per game than Tulo. It just wasn’t enough given the time he missed.

If Braun has anyone to blame for missing out on the Rooke of the Year, it’s Doug Melvin, who kept The Hebrew Hammer down over a month longer than he should have. But that would just be making excuses for Braun’s A-2000.

Assuming Braun gets moved to the outfield next year, he’ll be in line for some MVP nods if he continues to put up numbers like those of 2007. Which, if it’s any consolation, Tulowitzki probably won’t be able to say.

If Troy is nice, he’ll let Ryan polish his Rookie of the Year trophy on the weekends. Well, every other weekend if the judge is in one of those moods.

Editor’s Note: If you enjoyed this post, or if you didn’t enjoy it and you’re still reading for some reason, please let me plug R-D one more time. Thanks again for your help, James!

Just, out.

Probably not. Maybe. Probably not. In that order.

Of course, the Yankees have already punched their ticket to the postseason regardless of whether they catch the Red Sox or not. And, let me tell you, I am so excited about seeing the Yankees play the Red Sox in the postseason. Forget about the 18 times they’ve faced each other this season. This is playoff time! Sigh.

In Queens, however, the Mets are holding on to their division lead by 2.5 games as of Thursday morning. On September 12 the Mets were 7 games up on the Phillies. If the Phillies somehow manage to pull this off it would be the greatest story of the year (sorry, Rick Ankiel).

And then there’s the NL Central. The Brewers probably won’t get any more starts from Ben Sheets, which, considering his recent performance (probably still injury-induced) wasn’t all that good anyway. His ERA went from a quality 3.30 the day after he returned to a dreadfully pedestrian 3.82. At least he’ll be on the cheap in next year’s fantasy auctions/drafts.

The Cubs are the better team when not starting Steve Trachsel or Jason Kendall, and the 84-85 wins they’re on pace for ought to be enough to take the division.

So sit back, relax and enjoy the races. I’m not sure how often I’ll be able to post because 1) I’ll be immersed in watching the games and 2) I have a very busy work week ahead.

I did want to talk about Howie Kendrick still batting 7th or 8th in the Angels lineup, though. We’ll get to that another time. Maybe.

Just, out.

Nate Silver over at Baseball Prospectus wonderfully analyzed the starting rotations of the teams in the playoff hunt.

I wanted to discuss it because a) it introduced me to a new metric I knew little about and b) the article was interesting to me. So it should be interesting to you, too.

Essentially, Silver took the 16 teams with a shot at making the playoffs and evaluated them based on QERA, which judges pitchers solely on strikeout rate, walk rate and groundball-to-flyball ratio — numbers Silver says “stabilize relatively quickly and are largely unaffected by park and league effects.”

There’s a lot more data flying around that you’ll need to become a BP subscriber to see, because I don’t want to get into it.

The two best staffs, according to Silver and QERA, are the Red Sox and Padres, not surprisingly. Interestingly enough, though, Chris R. Young’s QERA is a 4.20, which seems high considering his 2.38 season ERA. But, as Silver points out, QERA is punishing him for having high flyball rates which haven’t hurt him while pitching in Petco.

Before I get into the teams I really wanted to talk about, I do want to mention the Indians, which Silver has ranked No. 3. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona give the team two leaders while Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook are just good enough to at least give the offense a chance.

But enough of that, I only mentioned those teams because, like I said, I thought it was interesting. Let’s talk about the reason I’m here right now — the Cubs and Brewers.

The Cubs have truly hurt their rotation by adding Steve Trachsel to the mix, and I have a feeling if Silver knew he’d be getting starts down the stretch, the Cubs wouldn’t have been ranked No. 10 on his list.

It’ll be interesting to see what the Cubs do. In the playoffs, they’ll probably shuffle Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill and Ted Lilly into a solid three-man rotation, which would give them a good enough 1-2-3 to get the job done.

The Brewers, who Silver ranked 7th, are a wild card — and I’m hesitant to say their rotation is good enough to survive the playoffs. This coming from a guy who has had a Ben Sheets man-crush for years.

But Sheets may not be able to survive a three-man rotation, and Yovani Gallardo and Dave Bush give me even greater pause.

Silver says the rotation just needs to be handled appropriately:

The principal question is whether Ned Yost can manage to deploy his pitching assets correctly. Jeff Suppan is the guy who should be missing starts when the schedule affords it, but instead the Brewers have soured on Chris Capuano, whose problems have been caused almost entirely by his .335 BABIP (the only reason Capuano gets listed at all is because Claudio Vargas just hit the DL). Ben Sheets is the other variable, since he could be anywhere from a 3.00 to a 4.50 ERA pitcher depending on how healthy his arm is. Handled properly, the rotation ought to be an asset for the Brewers.

I agree and disagree. Sure, Cappy’s numbers look worse than they truly are, but how much better is he, truly?

Even QERA labels all four of the non-Sheets pitchers at or around 4.00, which means they’re not much better than the Cubs.

And I happen to think, given the Trachsel news and the fact that the Cubs may give Jason Marquis priority for October starts over Hill, that the Cubs are likely to mismanage the rotation much more than the Brew Crew, despite Ned Yost’s desire to make as many senseless decisions as possible.

In the end, it just might come down to which manager makes the fewest bad decisions, and if that is the case, Lou Piniella better screw his head on straight.

At least Jason Kendall is hurt, eliminating the opportunity for Lou to start him. I will stand by my my contention that this is the best thing that could have happened.

Just, out.

Nate Silver pointed out an interesting fact yesterday: The Brewers have blown 13 games in which they had a three-run lead.

The Brewers have blown a lot of leads this year — 13 times they have been ahead by at least three runs, and gone on to lose the ballgame. Even more remarkably, nine of those losses have come since July 28, which is the sort of thing that gets managers and pitching coaches fired.

Our friends at ESPN Radio Milwaukee asked us if this is an historic number: has a team ever turned that many 3-run leads into losses and gone on to make the playoffs? The answer is yes, although it isn’t easy to do. Since 1959, just two teams have blown more than 13 3-run leads and advanced to the playoffs: the 1974 Pirates, who lost 14 ballgames that way, and the 1963 Dodgers, who lost 18 (that Dodger team had a staff ERA of 2.85, so this has to be one of the stranger statistics of all time). Several other teams did blow exactly 13 games and make the playoffs — but of course, the Brewers still have five more weeks to surpass that threshold.

On May 6, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel quoted Brewers pitching coach Mike Maddux as saying: “You’ll only go as far as your bullpen will take you.”

That in an article with the headline “Tough to crack; Brewers build top-notch bullpen with Turnbow, Cordero as anchors.”

Oh, the irony.

It wasn’t that long ago that the Brewers bullpen was the strongest asset of the team.

On July 28, the date Silver points to in his blog post, the Brewers had scored 40 more runs than they’d allowed overall. And what is their run differential today? They’ve allowed 21 more runs than they’ve scored.

Funny that not even Ryan Braun, who has been with the team since May 24 and arguably the best player in baseball since his arrival, could keep the team’s run differential afloat.

He also belongs to a very select group of athletes.

The Brewers, in a final act of desperation, have activated Ben Sheets to start tonight’s game. He belongs to some select groups, too, though. Like this one. And this one.

It may be enough to help them win tonight’s game, but it likely won’t be enough to help them win the division.

Just, out.

The Cubs and Brewers have led the NL Central all season, and for the first time since their series at the beginning of July, the NL Central powerhouses (who are truly anything but), will meet up to set the course for the rest of the season.

The Cubs appear to be the better team from all statistical angles, and now have their All-Star outfielder, Alfonso Soriano, back on the field.

The possibility exists that the team that loses this series will sit behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the division, depending on their series with Houston.

The division race hasn’t shaped up to be nearly as exciting as I anticipated it would be, but it is still sort of exciting for the wrong reasons. Essentially, which team stinks the least?

Come playoff time, though, the Central winner could still make a splash, as these guys proved.

So enjoy the battle of the titans tonight between Jeff Suppan (8-11, 4.85 ERA) and Rich Hill (7-7, 3.67 ERA).

Just, out.

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling we’re in for one of the most fun division races in a while.

The Brewers and Cubs are two teams that I viewed as about equally good entering the season. I picked the Brewers to win it, but it’s certainly a toss-up at this point.

Currently the Brewers sit 4.5 games up, which must feel unimaginably better to the Cubs, who were almost twice as many games back not that long ago.

I think it’s too early for either team to care about what the other team is doing. That shuoldn’t happen until about August 1. Then we can start tracking the standings. For now, the Cubs just need to keep winning.

The Brewers are playing worse than they really are right now, and the Cubs are playing better, so it should be fun to see how it all plays out.

Meanwhile, it’s nice that the Cubs are able to pick up games on the Brewers against a team like the Nationals, while the Brewers were unable to hold off the Bucs.

It’s been a hectic season for the Cubs, but they look like they’ve finally come into their own. I give Lou Piniella a lot of credit. While I don’t think he was the best choice for the job, I think he has gotten a lot of players who little was expected from, despite getting little out of players we expected a lot from. To wit: Derrek Lee has six homers and Carlos Zambrano is just beginning to look like the ace of old.

It may be the worst division in baseball, but these two teams are a lot of fun to watch.

Just, out.

Chris Capuano got hurt before Wednesday’s start against the Tigers, so the Brewers will call on top prospect Yovani Gallardo to take the hill in the near future.

Gallardo has upside on the level of Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey and Tim Lincecum, so grab him now in fantasy leagues.

The 21-year-old is 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 starts for Triple-A Nashville.

Just, out.

One of the funniest things I heard last weekend was that Francisco Cordero’s nickname in Texas is 24/7. Why? Because he never closes.

That was the case last weekend against his former team. Cordero blew two saves to the Rangers, giving up five runs in two games. He had allowed only one run to that point all season.

The frustrating part for Cordero was that he had a 3-0 lead and 2 outs in the ninth when the floodgates opened. Cordero allowed four runs, capped off by a Michael Young RBI single to end the game and hand him his first blown save of the year.

On Wednesday, Cordero worked a perfect ninth against the Tigers to earn his MLB-leading 23rd save.

Just, out.

The Brewers finally made the decision to call up big time third base prospect Ryan Braun.

The team’s third base platoon ranked in the bottom five in slugging percentage, batting average, home runs, runs scored and RBIs.

Braun has torn up the Pacific Coast League, though, with a 1.152 OPS and a .342 batting average.

His poor defense was the reason he was left down so long, but apparently he’s made strides toward improving it and is ready to play — hopefully everyday.

The Brewers are going to be a whole lot tougher to catch, I think.

Just, out.