Just wanted to quickly comment on the 2008 NL Central race. It’s never too soon, right?

Most of the Cubs’ offseason decisions will be the responsibility of new ownership, so it’s difficult to predict whether the team will improve. What we do know is that the team’s core of Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Zambrano are in place.

The team also has a lot more potentially going for them in Rich Hill and Geovany Soto. Hill already displayed his talent over the course of a full season, but Soto’s production as a catcher should be big.

I hope the Cubs give Felix Pie the starting job in center next year, but given that it’s the Cubs, they’ll probably look elsewhere. If they do decide to do this, they have to trade Pie. Keeping him around and turning him into Matt Murton would be devastating.

The team will have many more decisions, too, regarding the futures of Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, Daryle Ward, and others.

Overall, I certainly don’t think the Cubs will be any worse, but we’ll have to wait and see — the Cubs have proven me wrong before.

Not being worse may not be enough to win anymore, because the Brewers are certainly not getting worse.

Just, out.

Nate Silver pointed out an interesting fact yesterday: The Brewers have blown 13 games in which they had a three-run lead.

The Brewers have blown a lot of leads this year — 13 times they have been ahead by at least three runs, and gone on to lose the ballgame. Even more remarkably, nine of those losses have come since July 28, which is the sort of thing that gets managers and pitching coaches fired.

Our friends at ESPN Radio Milwaukee asked us if this is an historic number: has a team ever turned that many 3-run leads into losses and gone on to make the playoffs? The answer is yes, although it isn’t easy to do. Since 1959, just two teams have blown more than 13 3-run leads and advanced to the playoffs: the 1974 Pirates, who lost 14 ballgames that way, and the 1963 Dodgers, who lost 18 (that Dodger team had a staff ERA of 2.85, so this has to be one of the stranger statistics of all time). Several other teams did blow exactly 13 games and make the playoffs — but of course, the Brewers still have five more weeks to surpass that threshold.

On May 6, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel quoted Brewers pitching coach Mike Maddux as saying: “You’ll only go as far as your bullpen will take you.”

That in an article with the headline “Tough to crack; Brewers build top-notch bullpen with Turnbow, Cordero as anchors.”

Oh, the irony.

It wasn’t that long ago that the Brewers bullpen was the strongest asset of the team.

On July 28, the date Silver points to in his blog post, the Brewers had scored 40 more runs than they’d allowed overall. And what is their run differential today? They’ve allowed 21 more runs than they’ve scored.

Funny that not even Ryan Braun, who has been with the team since May 24 and arguably the best player in baseball since his arrival, could keep the team’s run differential afloat.

He also belongs to a very select group of athletes.

The Brewers, in a final act of desperation, have activated Ben Sheets to start tonight’s game. He belongs to some select groups, too, though. Like this one. And this one.

It may be enough to help them win tonight’s game, but it likely won’t be enough to help them win the division.

Just, out.

Is it so far-fetched to say the Reds are in contention for the NL Central title?

Well, probably.

How sad is it that a team that currently sits 10 games under .500 is 6.5 games out of first? One team in the division is over .500 — the Cubs — at a meager 66-63.

If the Cubs were to go .500 the rest of the way and win the division (honestly, isn’t that all it takes in this division?), they’d have 82-83 wins, which as history told us last year, is enough to not only win the division, but the World Series as well.

Pittsburgh and Houston are tied for last in the division with records of 57-72 and 58-73, respectively. They’re nine games out of first. Nine!

Every other last place team is out of first by at least 15 games, so it seems reasonable to leave Cincinnati in the playoff picture. A six-game win streak has propelled them to a 60-70 record. They’ve also won eight of their last 10.

Now, I don’t think the Reds should, can, or will win the division, but their place in the division certainly points out this comedy of errors. Literally.

Just, out.

What a wild season it’s been for the Cubs.

They’ve been lousy since losing Alfonso Soriano, who is expected out another two weeks.

The Cubbies are 7-10 in August, but sit a half a game up on the Brewers for the lead in the NL Central. The Brewers, if you couldn’t tell, have played even worse.

Two of those seven August wins have come in the last two days, in what is a critical series against the St. Louis Cardinals, who have crept back into contention. The Cards are just four games out. As you may remember, I eliminated the Cards from the playoffs on May 5, after news that Chris Carpenter would be out for most of the season broke.

I still don’t think they’ll make the playoffs, but it sure has made things more interesting, and put the pressure on the Cubs.

The Brewers lost Ben Sheets several weeks back, and have been in dire need of an ace to assure them a win every five games.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch released their power rankings today and listed the Cardinals at No. 14, the Brewers at No. 15 and the Cubs at No. 16. Am I crazy, or are the Cardinals still four games under .500 and four back in the Central?

And this despite the fact the Cubs have a run differential of +48 while the Cards’ is -66! As my St. Louis Office counterpart said, “Aren’t power rankings supposed to be based on something?”

Well said.

The Cubs are the best team in the division right now, and will be a force once again when Soriano returns. The Cardinals are bad on both sides of the baseball and have merely struck fool’s gold with this hot streak.

It will still boil down to the Brewers and Cubs at the end of the day. I picked the Brewers before the season and it would be silly to change my mind now. However, the Cubs ARE the better team now, and there’s not much six starts from Sheets down the stretch will do to stop that.

Luck goes a long way, though.

Just, out.