Who do I think will win tonight? I’d give the Red Sox a 52% chance of winning.

Who would I bet on tonight? Rockies at +185.

Book it.

Just, out.

Through four innings, things don’t look good for the Rockies. A 4-1 deficit is certainly not insurmountable, but the Rockies are being obliterated right now.

Jeff Francis is on the verge of being yanked …

Oh dear, the Red Sox just scored two more thanks to a Jason Varitek single.

Not good for Rockies Nation.

Alex Rodriguez is your scapegoat, Paul Byrd is an “outstanding” pitcher and Eric Wedge is a genius. It’s time for my ALCS breakdown:

Catcher:
Jason Varitek had a 2.000 OPS in 1997; that’s pretty cool. The captain of the Red Sox is a .267 career hitter and has recovered nicely in 2007 to his awful ‘06. His numbers are still down from his career averages, but even his best years don’t compare to Victor Martinez. V-Mart is second in baseball in slugging percentage and OPS, behind only Jorge Posada. His catching is suspect at times, but the Boston guys who will run on him would run on anybody.
EDGE: INDIANS.

First Base:
Ok, let’s play who’s who:

2007 Player A: .288 /.390 /.453
2007 Player B: .289 /.359 /.483

Hard to know who to like here, isn’t it? If you’re familiar with Kevin Youkilis‘ nickname, you’d correctly identify him as Player A. By process of elimination, Player B is Ryan Garko. What separates these players? Youk didn’t commit an error this year.
EDGE: RED SOX, slightly.

Second Base:
The AL Rookie of the Year is likely the Sox’ Dustin Pedroia. Good with the bad and good with the glove. The Indians benched Josh Barfield in favor of Asdrubal Cabrera, who likes like the real deal.
EDGE: RED SOX, slightly.

Third Base:
The Indians were hoping to have a star in Andy Marte and that didn’t pan out for them, either. Casey Blake stepped in and put together an adequate season at the corner of the infield. Mike Lowell did not look like he was going to do anything after his big 2003 season, but has been getting better since joining the Sox.
EDGE: RED SOX.

Short Stop:
Julio Lugo’s season has been doted on all year, and I don’t want to continue that discussion. He’t not that good at hitting and his career stats indicate that. Jhonny Peralta had one of the biggest letdown years in 2006 and came out of it somewhat this season. This is probably right around where he’ll stay for his career.
EDGE: INDIANS.

Left Field:
Kenny Lofton might just be the MVP of the ALDS for the Indians. I expect that a lot of people wrote about how he’s game-smart and his experience allowed him to get three hits in the opening game. He’s facing Manny Ramirez in this breakdown and that’s hard to top.
EDGE: RED SOX.

Center Field:
Grady Sizemore may be the best offensive weapon on the Indians. A leadoff hitter that has a high OBP isn’t as common as I’d like to think it is. He had a letdown second half, but that’s not his historical norm, which in any case is significantly better than Coco Crisp.

Quick intermission to quote Joe Posnanski’s blog:

The announcer during Monday’s game actually called Grady Sizemore, “The best player you’ve never heard of,” which made me think about 11 different things all at once.

1. Are there really baseball fans who have never heard of Grady Sizemore?
2. Really?
3. Wasn’t he, like, on the cover of Sports Illustrated?
4. Have people heard of Sports Illustrated?
5. If Chip Caray’s name happened to be Chip Babblerock, would he be announcing playoff games on national televeision?
6. I thought Curtis Granderson was the best player you’ve never heard of.
7. Oh, you’ve heard of him too.
8. If Grady Sizemore was playing for the Yankees would he already have a statue in Monument Park or would they wait until he turned 30?
9. How many different Frank TV commercials are there anyway? There have to be like 40 of them. You know, he might want to save some bits for the actual show. Thing is, I like Frank Calliendo — I think his John Madden is freakishly good — but I will say this: My wife Margo was watching the game with me (you mothers and fathers out there can check out her Mom’s blog HERE), and whenever one of those commercials would come on she would say, “Was he supposed to be Dr. Phil? … Was that supposed to be George Bush? … Who is that? (It was supposed to be Robert DeNiro). My wife is usually a better judge of the American psyche than I am, and that show seems doomed.
10. Are there really baseball fans who have never heard of Grady Sizemore.
11. Really?

God Posnanski’s good. Or is Posnanski God? Chicken and the egg, I guess.
EDGE: INDIANS.

Right Field:
If Franklin Gutierrez walked a bit more he’d be the clear favorite over J.D. Drew, but Drew’s .390 OBP is very nice looking on paper.
EDGE: RED SOX, slightly.

Designated Hitter:
This is probably the most interesting “position” battle, even though David Ortiz is far and away the winner. Travis Hafner had an extremely down 2007 season, so it’s hard to give him any kind of edge. Even in his better years, it’s definitely a Red Sox advantage.
EDGE: RED SOX.

Starting Pitching:
If there’s one thing this series has, it’s good starting pitching. That is, until the Indians work past C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. The fact is the Indians can go toe-to-toe with any other rotation when only using three pitchers, which I hope is something Eric Wedge reconsiders doing. Vegas Watch did a pretty solid analysis of the rotations yesterday,and I agree with most of it. I think the matchups are even a little closer than he makes them out to be, mainly because my confidence in Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook is essentially zero. The biggest strategy will come into play in this series with how the managers work their starters. I’m going to give a cop out answer on this one.
EDGE: PUSH.

Relief Pitching:
Wedge has the tool to throw out one of the best bullpens in the league. The problem is his mismanagement of it. We’re due any day now for a Joe Borowski meltdown of such grand proportion that the mere thought of the Indians’ World Series hopes resting on his shoulders makes me cringe. Assuming the closers get used like closers tend to be used, it’s definitely a Boston advantage. Eric Gagne’s postseason role should be interesting. I assume he’s on a pretty short leash with very, very little room for error.
EDGE: RED SOX.

All things considered, this is the World Series. The Red Sox accumulated the best run differential during the regular season, and the Indians were third — behind only the Yankees, who they just eliminated from the playoffs.

I’m going to stick with my Indians preseason World Series pick because I still think they’re a dominating team and in many places where the Red Sox have an edge it is only slight.

Indians in seven.

Enjoy the ALCS!

Just, out.

46-7.

That was the cumulative score of the four-game series between the White Sox and Red Sox.

Can’t we all just get along?

CBS Sportsline called the White Sox the biggest bust team of the season in their power rankings this week. I’m generally inclined to disagree with statements that say the Sox are a bust, mostly because so many people predicted the Sox to finish in fourth.

But last in the division? Behind the Royals?

Their run differential took a massive hit this weekend, bringing their total to 150 more runs allowed than scored. Their expected win-loss record with such a sum is 50-80, even worse than the Royals expected 60-69.

And through it all, Jerry Reinsdorf defended Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen, telling Mike North the following:

I would give Ozzie an ‘A.’ It’s much harder to manage a team when the players are not performing and keep them playing hard. Most teams that were good teams and had high expectations, when they stink up the place and play poorly, there comes a point where they pack it in.

…

I’ve told Kenny this: I think he had his best offseason this year. His ability to reload the system with arms, I thought it was uncanny the way he pulled it off.

Even the fellas over at the South Side Sox blog asked “What’s worse: the play on the field or the fact that everyone in a decision making position thinks they did/(are still doing) a great job?”

No team spending as much money as the Sox should be this bad. They’re paying people to perform worse than AAA players!

That’s it. No more Sox posts this season!

Just, out.

OK, strike that last comment. I love doing Sox posts — they just make my blood boil.

The Onion, America’s Finest News Source, recently printed this brief which I found to be too funny not to share. I’ll stop talking and let you read it, then we’ll discuss:

REPORT: Another baseball team almost does something as interesting as the Yankees, Red Sox

NOT BOSTON OR NEW YORK—Something nearly worth reporting occurred either Saturday or Sunday—although no written records of the event exist, analysts claim it was the same day the Yankees beat the Mets to take the Subway Series—when the Minnesota Twins squandered a large late-game lead to the Brewers, but then won the game when Jason [sic] Morneau hit a walkoff home run in a manner eerily reminiscent of Red Sox slugger David Ortiz. “Manny Ramirez has really started heating up at the plate as of late, and you know what that means—opposing pitchers had better watch out,” ESPN’s Sean McAdam said when asked about Corey Hart’s eighth-inning homer that cut the Twins’ lead to two. “But if the Yankees rotation stays healthy and Abreu keeps swinging a big stick, it will be a tight race down the stretch. Should be a fun summer.” Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter, Jeff Suppan, and Joe Nathan were unavailable for comment, as they are not Derek Jeter, Curt Schilling, Johnny Damon, or Alex Rodriguez.

You know, it sounds ridiculous but it’s so true, too.

Flipping through channels Monday I found ESPN airing their usual Monday Night Baseball game. I watched for a few minutes with little shock that the game was the Yankees versus the Twins. Ah, nothing like baseball between two teams a combined 19.5 games out first.

Aren’t their more exciting games to watch? How about the Cubs? Aren’t they hot right now? How about Mark Buehrle’s potential last start as a White Sox? I know that sounds like a stubborn Chicago fan talking, but I assure you it’s a coincidence that both teams are located in Chicago.

I know that I’m probably preaching to the choir, too. It’s not really a debate as to whether ESPN always shows East coast teams. They do. It’s a fact. And they’re not really wrong to, either, considering the ratings.

So we just have to live with it, and enjoy terrific stories like this Onion brief.

Just, out.

Just four days ago I wrote in this blog that Josh Beckett looked like “the blisters might be a thing of the past and the 27-year-old is finally breaking out…again.”

Well, after just four innings of work Sunday, Beckett left with a torn flap of skin on his right middle finger.

Beckett was attempting to tie a franchise record with eight straight victories, set by Babe Ruth and two other Red Sox pitchers.

He left the game trailing 2-0, but in the end the Red Sox prevailed, winning 6-5. Beckett remains questionable for his next start against Atlanta.

Just, out.

Beckett will face the Orioles in search of win No. 8 on Sunday (AP Photo)

Not so long ago my favorite Beckett came to my house every month. But when the magazine told me how much my 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card decreased in value, my favorite Beckett became current Red Sox stud Josh.

Josh Beckett is 7-0 in seven starts this year. Nevermind the fact that the Red Sox are averaging 7.8 runs per game in his starts; Beckett boasts a 2.51 ERA and has only given up more than three runs in one start.

In Tuesday’s game against the Blue Jays, Beckett allowed a leadoff home run to Alex Rios but didn’t give up another run — allowing only four more hits and a walk.

After a disastrous first season with the Red Sox in a trade that looked equally disastrous, Beckett has rebounded to become baseball’s first 7-game winner. His WHIP is nearly under 1.00 and he has a 4-1 K/BB ratio…much improved from his 2006.

It looks like the blisters might be a thing of the past and the 27-year-old is finally breaking out…again.

Just, out.

Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling appeared on WEEI’s “Dennis and Callahan” show and said, among many things, that Bonds cheats.

I mean, he admitted that he used steroids. I mean, there’s no gray area. He admitted to cheating on his wife, cheating on his taxes, and cheating on the game, so I think the reaction around the league, the game, being what it is, in the case of what people think. Hank Aaron not being there. The commissioner [Bud Selig] trying to figure out where to be. It’s sad.

And I don’t care that he’s black, or green, or purple, or yellow, or whatever. It’s unfortunate … there’s good people and bad people. It’s unfortunate that it’s happening the way it’s happening.

Yikes, Curt. That’s nastier than I’ve ever been. But I’m proud of you for saying what’s on your mind.

Just, out.

Nice one, Mike. My turn. (AP Photo)

Down 3-0 in the bottom of the third inning, the Red Sox left a mark on Yankee rookie Chase Wright.

Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek hit back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs to give Boston a 4-3 lead.

It was the first time in Red Sox history that four straight homers were strung together.

Ironically, J.D. Drew was involved in the last back-to-back-to-back-to-back home run streak. Jeff Kent, Drew, Russell Martin and Marlon Anderson did it in the 9th inning against the Padres on Sept. 18.

Just, out

My “hometown” fans love me

The big story today involves Japanese imports Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ichiro Suzuki squaring off in what will be Dice-K’s first game at Fenway.

Ichiro faced Dice-K thirty-some times while in Japan and didn’t hit over .250. After facing big league pitching the last several year, though, who knows how Ichiro will respond to the mythical gyroball.

It should be quite an interesting game. Or at least an exciting first at bat. The game is on at 7:05 eastern time on ESPN2.

Just, out.