And Ken Griffey Jr. is on his team now! I must be at the nexus of the universe!

Anyway, Dusty Baker is back at the helm of a Major League ball club, and I’m cringing at the thought.

You’d think a guy who said that walks clog the bases would be disqualified from any and all management positions in baseball. I thought people that said things like that were limited to analyzing games for us on TV.

I guess they do both, now.

Anyway, the Reds do A LOT of walking, and Baker isn’t going to take to it very kindly.

Here’s Keith Law with the rest of that terrific Baker quote:

So Baker likes to work pitchers hard and doesn’t seem overly concerned when they walk too many opposing hitters. In fact, he has said walks are an overrated part of offense.

“I think walks are overrated unless you can run,” Baker said in an MLB.com story in March 2004. “If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. … Who have been the champions the last seven, eight years? Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks?”

This evinces, in my view, a lack of understanding of how runs are scored — and of the importance not just of getting on base, but of plate discipline in general. And in fact, the two years before Baker made those comments, the Yankees did lead the American League in walks, just as they did in 1997 and 1998, the latter being the year in which they won 114 games and led the league in runs scored.

See, this is exactly why the Reds can’t compete. It’s not because they’re in a small market or because they don’t have talent. No, it’s because they make bad personnel decisions. They’re like the Chicago Bears in that regard. But the Bears at least draft well.

The Reds are in rebuilding mode, or at least they should be. This is a team that hasn’t finished above .500 since 2000. Only a few teams can say that, and besides maybe the Devil Rays, it’s for the same reasons as the Reds.

Baker is notorious for his inability to develop young talent. This is why after winning the division with the Cubs in 2003 the team finished in third, fourth and last in the division after each of the next three seasons.

Baker’s .527 career winning percentage is probably what lured the Reds into giving him the reins, but Baker is usually the guy that comes in and takes over a veteran team that is already suited for the playoffs — like the Cubs in 2003. When it didn’t work out, things got uglier and uglier.

Coincidentally, Rob Neyer brought up how much good a manager can be to a team in his ESPN chat wrap yesterday:

I would guess that maybe 10 percent of managers are capable of making a significant positive impact, but 25 percent are capable of making a significant negative impact. So if you’re the Yankees, you just have to guard against hiring one of those 25-percenters (and yes, I just pulled those numbers out of my nether regions).

Keith Law, again talking on the subject, echoed this sentiment on ESPNNews shortly after the announcement:

I think we really overrate how much good a manager can do…A good manager might be worth 3-4 wins, maybe five if he’s really good with his bullpen like Bob Melvin is, tops. But more likely a good manager is worth an extra two wins a season. But a bad manager? Not only could he be worth five or eight fewer wins…but i think a bad manager could really hurt you going forward because (he) can really retard the development of your prospects.

Speaking of which, the Reds are busting with young talent. Top pitching prospect Homer Bailey will be a regular starter next season, and Johnny Cueto, another top prospect is waiting in line after him. Additionally, the bats of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will make big impacts in the middle of the lineup. There is more than enough talent here to win an NL Central title — with the right person in charge.

Forgetting what ESPN analysts have to say, I asked the one Reds fan I know what he thought about Baker. His response?

So far, 98% of Reds fans are pissed over the move.

Way to get the fans back. This was their chance, the Bengals suck, ND
football is awful, UC & UK basketball is down. They could have been the
talk of the town. Instead…ummmmm, not so much.

Thanks for those inspiring words, John.

To be sure, it won’t be long before Baker is back in the broadcast booth, telling us the same wrong things that he tells his players.

Just, out.

Is it so far-fetched to say the Reds are in contention for the NL Central title?

Well, probably.

How sad is it that a team that currently sits 10 games under .500 is 6.5 games out of first? One team in the division is over .500 — the Cubs — at a meager 66-63.

If the Cubs were to go .500 the rest of the way and win the division (honestly, isn’t that all it takes in this division?), they’d have 82-83 wins, which as history told us last year, is enough to not only win the division, but the World Series as well.

Pittsburgh and Houston are tied for last in the division with records of 57-72 and 58-73, respectively. They’re nine games out of first. Nine!

Every other last place team is out of first by at least 15 games, so it seems reasonable to leave Cincinnati in the playoff picture. A six-game win streak has propelled them to a 60-70 record. They’ve also won eight of their last 10.

Now, I don’t think the Reds should, can, or will win the division, but their place in the division certainly points out this comedy of errors. Literally.

Just, out.

Dear Mr. Morgan

I have the utmost respect for what you accomplished as a player during your career. Believe me, that’s not something I say lightly.

Players with career OBPs over .390 are certainly special and worthy of the Hall of Fame.

As a player, you served the game well. As a broadcaster, though, you have anything but Hall of Fame credentials.

You are regarded so often as ESPN’s top analyst and are the spotlight of its Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts. But the broadcasts are filled with ignorance, and your ESPN chats are an embarrassment.

I realize that I am stepping somewhat on the toes of the FireJoeMorgan.com Web site with this post, but I needed to say this myself.

Please, discontinue your service as a baseball broadcaster, commentator, and analyst. You do so little of all three, anyway.

Last month the Phillies lost their 10,000th game and you claimed to be responsible for their tailspin back in 1964. You said, on the air, mind you, that you came up for your first big league at bat late in the season against the Phillies and got your first hit and RBI during their fall from first.

What possible reason did you have to lie?

Your first big league at bat came on Sept. 21, 1963, not in late ‘64.

You also added that Phillies manager Gene Mauch was so upset about being beaten by “a little leaguer” that he kicked over the buffet table.

Again, why the theatrics? Why the lie? You’re a Hall of Famer, Mr. Morgan.

Our troubles don’t end there.

It’s one thing to share your opinions with other people. It’s another to be flagrantly wrong when you do so. Allow me to provide an example.

During your weekly ESPN chat two weeks ago, a fan asked this:

Rick SD: Do you think there is often too much weight and kudos given to individual stat data accomplishments in what is supposed to be a team sport?

Your response:

Joe Morgan: Finally somebody that understands the game. You’re right. Statistics are overrated. What you do to help your team win is what it’s all about. These stats like OPS, it doesn’t tell you what you do for the team. To my opinion, to help the team, you drive in runs or score runs. That helps the team. That’s how you should be judged.

It’s one thing to argue against looking too much into statistics. It’s another to argue against a stat like OPS and then claim that stats like RS and RBI are better indicators of a player’s value to his team.

OPS tells us how productive an individual is. Runs scored and RBI tell us how productive the players around you are. How is that possibly better?

There’s one more chat question and answer I’d like to share with you. It’ll force you to think back to late April of 2006. The question:

Patrick (St. Louis, MO): You stated in your last chat that because you’ve been around the game for so long, there isn’t much more anybody can teach you about it. It seems like you’re saying that everything in baseball is known already, whereas I feel that there is plenty that we don’t know, especially with advances in sports medicine, the ability to use technology to evaluate defense more accurately, and the increasing availability of pitch-by-pitch data to study long-term trends in the game. Don’t you owe it to your listeners to listen to new arguements and research, especially if they are intelligent and logical? You seem to have the notion that a lot of the objective analysis being done now is trying to get rid of traditional scouting, but most sabremetricians feel that both are essential to get the best results.

Your reply:

Joe Morgan: The guy that wrote Moneyball can’t teach me about the game. That is what I meant. If you haven’t been on the field, why should I read your book? How can that person teach me about the game? I learn plenty about the game everyday. Every Sunday night I learn something. The game changes almost every day. But I’m still not going to read Moneyball or books written by people who haven’t been on the field or really experienced what goes on in the game of baseball.

Again, this isn’t anything people haven’t pointed out before, but this really bothers me, Mr. Morgan. Outside the fact that you didn’t even know the author’s name, you refused to even acknowledge that different viewpoints about baseball analysis exist. Believe it or not, Moneyball has had a tremendous influence on the way baseball scouts, GMs, and managers go about the game today. Isn’t something that causes such a profound revolution in thought worthy of at least acknowledgment? At the very least, the book is an interesting look into the way Billy Beane shaped the A’s during his time as general manager. But the failure of the author to align himself to your thoughts on the game caused you to shun the book. And that’s a shame.

You should be ashamed.

If you’re going to share your thoughts and opinions on a pedestal as grand as ESPN, please, at least, be accurate and open-minded in your discussion.

Or, just stop sharing your thoughts and opinions altogether.

Sincerely,

David Just

P.S. I’m serious. Please stop. Now.

Gordon Wittenmyer reported in today’s Chicago Sun-Times that Bob Brenly would be interested in talking to the Reds about another managerial gig.

Brenly told the paper that it’s all rumors right now, but if given the opportunity, “I’d be interested in talking,” he said.

Apparently the Reds already contacted Joe Girardi the job, but I have a feeling they’ll get the same response the Orioles got from him.

He’s waiting out that Yankees job.

Just, out.

There’s nowhere to hide, Homer. (AP Photo)

Reds prospect Homer Bailey has done nothing to impress me since joining the team earlier this month.

Sure, he landed two wins in his first three games, but he did so while striking out only seven guys and walking 11. A massive downturn was imminent, and it struck in his last two starts.

Bailey was unable to get out of the second inning in his last start against the Phillies, walking three and striking out one. He gave up six runs and was dealt the first loss of his big league career. Today against the Cardinals Bailey went 3.2 innings and gave up another six runs. He struck out two hitters and walked five. His season ERA is up to a putrid 7.71.

Overall Bailey has walked 19 hitters in 23.1 total innings. In that time he has only struck out 10.

It’s one thing for a rookie pitcher to get shelled in his first few outings, but it’s another thing to look bad doing it. I’m sure the Reds don’t mind losing games to allow their biggest prospect to develop, but Bailey isn’t giving them anything to be excited about. If his K/BB ratio was reversed and his ERA was still 7.71, we could at least be optimistic about the future.

I’m not sure whether the Reds will or should demote Bailey back to the minors, but something has to happen for him soon.

Just, out.

Homer Bailey, the top ranked prospect in the Reds organization, has finally been called upon to pitch a major league game.

The debut, however, couldn’t be more unfavorable for the young phenom. Bailey has been tasked with the opener of the weekend series against the Indians.

Bailey is 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 10 starts this season for Triple-A Louisville. His K/BB ratio is not particularly good right now, and it’s certainly a cause for concern. Nevertheless, Bailey has greater upside than Yankees rookie Phil Hughes, who has been injured since his second start.

Bailey should without question be added in every fantasy league at this point, but I would wait to start him until he proves he is ready to handle major league hitting. An Indians match-up is pretty unfavorable for any pitcher, any time, though.

Just, out.

The Hardball Times did an excellent piece on whether the Brewers are doing the right thing by leaving Ryan Braun in the minors. The circumstances there are specific to a contending team. I’m sure Jeff Sackmann would have argued to bring Braun up if the Brewers were not in contention.

Enter Homer Bailey and the Reds.

Bailey, arguably the top pitching prospect in Baseball, is perplexing AAA hitters. He’s 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA and opponents are hitting just .194 against him.

The Reds are 15-22 and are better than only the Nats in the National League. They’re using Eric Milton in the 5th starter spot. He’s 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA. Is it that $10 million salary he’s getting this year that is making the Reds stick with him? Hmm…

Anyway, when the Reds get over their denial they’ll begin to see that Bailey is the next step toward building a competitive team.

Of course, that’s easy for me to say. I’m pretty much blinded by this kid’s ceiling and upside and forget how immature he probably is. Most preseason projections marked him for only a handful of starts, but I wonder if those took into account the fact that the Reds would be out of contention this early and Milton would be performing so badly — not to mention how well Bailey is doing in the minors right now.

His walk rates are the only spot of concern right now, as he’s given 19 free passes in 49+ innings. He looks ready, though.

And when he finally takes the mound in a Cincy jersey, look out.

Just, out.

Nevermind this timestamp — the thing is broken. It’s 2:40 and Brandon Phillips just made the third out in the bottom of the 8th with Dunn waiting on deck. If the Astros don’t come back from this 9-5 deficit, Dunn will miss out on a chance for the single he needs to complete the cycle.

12:40 p.m.Dunn just grounded into a double play to end the sixth inning. He should get at least one more at bat.

12:28 p.m. It’s the bottom of the fifth inning of the Reds-Astros game and outfielder Adam Dunn is a single away from completing an unnatural cycle.

A natural cycle is one that occurs in order: single, double, triple, home run. Dunn hit a three-run home run in the first, tripled and scored in the third, and hit a leadoff double and scored in the fifth. I’m pretty sure I just made up the term “unnatural cycle.” (Patent pending)

I’ll update this post after Dunn’s next AB.

Just, out.

Cincinnati Reds manager Jerry Narron benched cleanup hitter Edwin Encarnacion after the third baseman failed to run out a pop fly.

Encarnacion, 24, has been quiet with his bat this season, but the benching was strictly for lack of hustle in the middle of the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Get that glove down and stay in front of it!

“I don’t care if we lose every game,” Narron told the Associated Press, “we’re not going to play guys that don’t hustle. Simple as that.”

I’m glad to see a manager who doesn’t take crap from his players and won’t stand for guys lollygagging. There is far too much of thatmentality in baseball, and all sports for that matter. But, we ignore those sports in the confines of the Just Baseball blog.

Digression #1:

Skip: You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
Larry: Lollygaggers!
Skip: Lollygaggers.

Now back to the regularly scheduled blog.

I always enjoyed Bobby Cox’s appoach to managing. If Andruw Jones had a mental lapse on the bases, he’d be sitting right next to the manager the next game. This method seems far more logical than the Dusty Baker approach of 2006. That method was basically: Jacque Jones hits fifth. Jacque Jones throws ball home instead of taking easy out at second. Jacque Jones hits second the next day.

What exactly do you call that? Nothing like a promotion to force the issue.

I hope more managers will consider motivating their players to hustle. It’s sad when players jog down the line on a ground ball. Is it because of injury concerns that players don’t hustle on ground balls and pop flies? Come on, this is baseball. Only good things can result from hustling. You can leg out singles or force fielders to commit errors. Anything that makes their job harder is a good thing for the other team.

Digression #2:

Francisco Cordero accomplished a rare feat on Wednesday by picking up two saves. Because of the rule change, the Marlins and Brewers finished their game that was left tied in extra innings from Tuesday. Cordero closed out the Fish and then picked up another save in the nightcap. What a nice little stat line for one day: 2IP, 1H, 2K, 2S.

And we’re back.

Encarnacion claims he didn’t run because he thought the ball was foul. Man, when I was in little league the first thing my dad (my manager) told me was to run out everything. That seems to be an important fundamental and not one it takes much intelligence to acknowledge. There are no excuses, Edwin.

Just, out.

In only the third game of the day, I’m quite sure we’ve found our top highlight — or at least some fodder for a gag reel.

Pittsburgh outfielder Xavier Nady properly tracked Adam Dunn’s fly ball into his mitt, but after it hit the middle of the mitt, it bounced off into the first row of the stands, hitting a Reds fan. It was Dunn’s third homer of the young season.

The home run was recorded as a 369 foot blast. We know the Reds scorekeeper strives for accuracy because it is 370 feet to the wall in the Great American Ballpark.

Just, out.