Sorry, forgot to re-copy my Cubs column from our special section. I’ve added some links for your enjoyment as well:

The Chicago Cubs have history working for and against them as they prepare for their postseason run.

Of course, we are all too familiar with the forces working against them: Nary a day goes by that we aren’t reminded of the Curse of the Billy Goat wreaking havoc on Leon Durham in 1984, or Steve Bartman preventing Moises Alou from making a catch with one out in the eighth inning of the 2003 NLCS.

What so many people don’t know, though, is how much the Cubs have going for them. And history, for better or for worse, might just smile upon the North Siders this year.

Let’s flash back to 2006 for a quick minute. The Cardinals are 80-70 on Sept. 20 and lose their next six games. They back into the playoffs with just 83 victories, smoke the Padres in the NLDS, squeeze by the Mets 4-3 in the NLCS, and swiftly tame the Tigers in the World Series. Only the 63-victory Dodgers of the strike-shortened 1981 season won
fewer regular season games and went on to win the title.

The 2005 White Sox limped into the playoffs without much momentum and went on to an 11-1 postseason. Perhaps Billy Beane was on to something when he said the playoffs are almost entirely luck.

Only once since the introduction of the wild card has the winningest team gone on to win the World Series, and that was the 1998 Yankees — arguably the best team in baseball history.

OK, now let’s slowly bring ourselves back to the present. As of Sunday, only two teams in the National League playoff picture have a better run differential than the Cubs, and that’s the Padres and Rockies. The Rockies won, so the Cubs won’t have to deal with them until the NLCS, or at all.

The Cubs will be facing the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, and as far as I can tell, Chicago stacks up best against Arizona.

The D-backs have had a penchant for winning very close games and being blown out regularly. This is due, in large part, because the Snakes have such awful starting pitching. Brandon Webb is their only weapon in the rotation, and he’ll almost certainly start games one and four. The rest of the rotation (Doug Davis, 4.25 ERA; Livan Hernandez, 4.93; Micah Owings, 4.30; and Yusmeiro Petit, 5.02) includes, as the ERAs indicate, less than stellar options.

The Cubs will need to jump on Arizona’s starters to prevent the league’s best bullpen from shutting them down in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Some more Alfonso Soriano leadoff home runs would go a long way to help that cause.

But if there’s one thing, above all else, that the Cubs absolutely have to do if they want to have any chance of winning this thing, it’s to make good decisions. That starts with Lou Piniella.

I’ve watched with great admiration the way Piniella has handled the bullpen, and I hope he doesn’t change a thing. Carlos Marmol has been working the seventh and eighth innings instead of serving as the team’s closer, even though he’s the best reliever in the bullpen. This is a significant step for a manager nowadays, as most tend to designate the best reliever specifically for “saves.”

I respect Piniella for making that choice — it’s far more important to have the team’s best reliever preserving close games and small leads before the final three outs.

On the other hand, Piniella has made several personnel decisions that the most casual of baseball fans would call questionable.

The Cubs’ skipper may have felt some pressure to start Jason Kendall and Steve Trachsel during the regular season because they were specifically acquired to help down the stretch, but to start them now would be catastrophic. Neither player carries the numbers necessary to justify being in the major leagues, let alone starting (or playing) during the playoffs. Geovany Soto has certainly already deemed himself worthy enough of full-time starting duties behind the plate.

The other area of concern is the use of Craig Monroe, another midseason acquisition. Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry brought the Tigers outfielder to the Cubs to address the team’s need for a right-handed hitter with power. Given his splits against right- and left-handed pitching, Monroe has no business ever facing a righty. He has a very specific skill set, and Piniella needs to limit him to it.

History won’t be working against the Cubs when the playoffs begin on Wednesday. They control their own destiny.
Chicago has a great chance to bring another World Series title home, and if Piniella manages properly, the Cubs will enjoy a lengthy postseason.

If not, well, we can always blame a curse.

Just, out.

August 1st. Do you remember August 1, 2007? It wasn’t that long ago. At the time, the Chicago Cubs were an indestructible entity. At 57-49, they sat tied with the Brewers for first place in the NL Central. They had scored 63 more runs than they had allowed. Carlos Zambrano had pitched 7.1 innings of shutout baseball two days prior to improve to 14-7 on the season. In fact, that was his 11th “quality start” in a row.

Now it’s September 10th. The Cubs have gone a pitiable 15-21 since August 1st.

Despite seeing Alfonso Soriano’s slugging percentage increase 22 points in September, the Cubs have gone 4-5, losing three of the four games in which he homered.

I often recollect on the days before August 1st. Before Jason Kendall had become a regular everyday player. Before Steve Trachsel was making starts.

Those were the days.

Zambrano allowed 31 runs — earned runs — in his next six starts. The Cubs lost every one of them, dropping Zambrano to 14-12.

The team’s run differential has fallen to just 30 more runs scored than allowed, ranking them 13th in all of baseball in expected winning percentage.

They’re even losing in spite of Kendall’s August surge which saw his slugging percentage rise to a season-high .320 (shiver). Hooray 11 extra base hits since the All-Star break! Seriously, I want to vomit every time Cubs fans sing his praises.

Then there’s Trachsel. I’m going to let Baseball Prospectus writer Joe Sheehan handle this one. Joe?

The Cubs might just want to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Trading for Steve Trachsel and using him to replace Sean Marshall in the rotation is a move out of the Rachel Phelps playbook. Marshall had been an above-average starter for three months, with an ERA below 4.00, a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and a strong groundball rate. Steve Trachsel has walked 70 men and struck out 48 in 146 2/3 innings, and I submit that no pitcher in the history of baseball has ever been good while putting up numbers like that. Every time Trachsel pitches, he nicks away at the Cubs’ chances of winning the division.

Thanks, Joe. And I love the Major League reference.

And I think Mr. Sheehan hit on my point even more than I intended him to. The Cubs’ problems aren’t limited to the field. Jim Hendry has created a monster he can no longer control — signing players past their prime to lengthy contracts and securing a financial disaster for the ages.

James Holzhauer over at Results Disoriented wrote this beautiful little number on Hendry and ex-Pirates GM Dave Littlefield.

Hmm. Hendry’s job appears safe. Why? I’m not trying to defend Littlefield, but if he had the authorization to spend $400 million, I don’t think he could have done a worse job with it than Hendry did. As it is, the bargain-basement Pirates enter today’s action less than 10 games behind the Cubs, who would be out of contention in any other division in organized sports.

…

Frankly, the big difference I see between these two is that one of their teams has a large built-in fan base, giving their GM the resources to overpay for a .500 ballclub. It’s too bad that ownership doesn’t see it that way, because if they did the Cubs would have a better front office and a brighter team outlook.

If the Cubs don’t make the playoffs there’s absolutely no excuse Hendry can make. If they finish below .500, it would be even more of an outrage.

Why, oh why, aren’t more people (fans, especially) making any noise about this? I’m still hearing praise for Hendry and the Cubs in some circles.

Ok, Cubs fans, let me hear ya. A one, a two, a three…

Just, out.