The NL MVP race has generated a lot of discussion, both in this space and others.

It’s funny, there really is not much arguing going on about any of the AL races — MVP, CY, or RoY. Sure, there are some interesting options, but those races have pretty much been decided.

But in the NL, besides the Cy Young winner, the races are open for Rookie of the Year and MVP.

So, let’s take a look at the two candidates for this year’s NL Rookie of the Year, because each makes a very compelling argument. I’ll use, for now, the general criteria for the voters:

Player………………HR…RBI…..R……BB……SB…….BA……OBP…..SLG
Ryan Braun……………34…97….91……29……15……..324…..370…….634
Troy Tulowitzki………24…99…104…..57……7………291…..359…..480

There are two X factors at play here. Braun only had 451 at bats, making his case that much better in many ways (hurting it in others, more on that later).

The second X factor is defense. Braun committed 26 fielding errors in just 113 games. His fielding percentage is a lowly .895.

And take a look at these THT fielding stats. Braun’s RZR (Revised Zone Rating, or the number of balls hit into his zone that he successfully converted into an out) is .562, a good 40 points less than the next worst in all of the National League. (And for reference, it’s 60 points worse than the lowest RZR in the American League, held by Akinori Iwamura.

There’s certainly something to be said for being the worst fielder in the league, by far. Tulowitzki’s defense ranks him near the best in the league, something to the tune of fifth best infielder in the NL — maybe better depending on what defensive rankings you’re using.

I’m not smart enough nor do I have time enough to calculate how many runs Braun cost the Brewers, but I can say with a fair amount of certainty (being a Ben Sheets and Dave Bush fantasy owner) that he cost them (and me!) more than a couple of Ws.

Quick blog intermission: Prince Fielder plays in the same infield as Braun. You’ll see Fielder’s name just down the list from Braun if you refer to that THT fielding stats page again. The Brewers missed out on the NL Central by two games, and damn it all if that’s not the most identifiable, most fixable reason.

Anyway, with some much-needed help from James Holzhauer over at Results Disoriented, I could not find any defensive ratings that put Tulowitzki at less than +20 runs and Braun any higher than -20. In some cases, Braun was much, much lower.

Anyway, the question remains: How do we deduct from Braun’s offensive dominance to compensate for his defensive woes. Since VORP is essentially a measure of how many runs a player contributed offensively over a replacement player, we can use it to adjust for the defensive contributions, or lack thereof.

If we were to use +20 for Tulo and -20 for Braun (again, there were ranges of defensive output, but nothing worse for Tulo or better for Braun), their VORPs come out to 57 and 37, respectively. It’s funny, Braun’s VORP is 57 and Tulo’s is 37, and the 40-point swing simply reverses their position on the totem pole.

There are other equally unscientific ways to calculate this.

If I were to use a stat like THT’s win shares, Tulo comes out slightly higher, only because he played those extra 50 games. THT also created a win share percentage, which accommodates for playing time — and not surprisingly, Braun blows Tulo out of the water there. Braun did, in fact, create nearly three more runs per game than Tulo. It just wasn’t enough given the time he missed.

If Braun has anyone to blame for missing out on the Rooke of the Year, it’s Doug Melvin, who kept The Hebrew Hammer down over a month longer than he should have. But that would just be making excuses for Braun’s A-2000.

Assuming Braun gets moved to the outfield next year, he’ll be in line for some MVP nods if he continues to put up numbers like those of 2007. Which, if it’s any consolation, Tulowitzki probably won’t be able to say.

If Troy is nice, he’ll let Ryan polish his Rookie of the Year trophy on the weekends. Well, every other weekend if the judge is in one of those moods.

Editor’s Note: If you enjoyed this post, or if you didn’t enjoy it and you’re still reading for some reason, please let me plug R-D one more time. Thanks again for your help, James!

Just, out.

The Cubs have left nine runners on base in each game of the NLDS, and eight of them were in scoring position with two outs.

You can’t win a series with that lack of production.

Last night the Cubs did half of what I said they’d need to do in this series: They knocked Arizona starter Doug Davis out after 5.2 innings and scored four runs off him. Except this time the pitching wasn’t their to support them.

In Game 1 the problem was the opposite: good pitching but nobody home on offense.

Look, the Arizona bullpen doesn’t surrender leads. The Cubs will have another chance to beat up on a weakly pitcher Saturday night when Livan Hernandez takes the mound.

I don’t want to take anything away from what Arizona has done, but the Cubs are just the better team. It’d be nice if they could at least make it fun to watch.

More to come tomorrow.

Just, out.

Disregarding the controversy over the Lou Piniella decision to give Big Z the hook, let’s take a look at what we can expect in Game 2.

A sweep is now out of the question, but I expect the Cubs to win the net two games. The matchup of Ted Lilly vs. Doug Davis is not nearly as close as the Carlos Zambrano/Brandon Webb face-off of Game 1.

Lilly walked only 55 batters while striking out 174 this year. Davis walked 95 and struck out 144. Already we can begin to see the disparity between the two No. 2s.

I think it’s safe to say that if the Cubs can pitch anywhere near as well as Zambrano did last night, they’ll be in good shape to nab some wins against the non-ace Snakes pitchers.

Davis’ WHIP is the 5th worst in the National League. Sitting 4th worst in the NL in WHIP is Livan Hernandez — Arizona’s likely starter in Game 3.

The Cubs need to get these two wins to avoid seeing Webb in a potentially decisive Game 4.

Just, out.

After 13 seasons with the Cardinals, Walt Jocketty is out as general manager (AP Photo).

After seven playoff appearances, three pennants and less than a year since winning the World Series, Walt Jocketty is out as general manager of the Cardinals.

As ESPN’s Keith Law asks: What exactly does a GM have to do these days to keep his job?

I take issue with Law (just the once) in that I think there are some GMs who have long overstayed their welcome.

But he brings up a good point here:

Their seven-year run of winning seasons was snapped this year, due in no small part to injuries to Chris Carpenter, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, and 2007 marked just the fourth losing season in Jocketty’s tenure.

Jocketty was let go due to non-baseball reasons, but sometimes the baseball reasons need to win out. His track record at the major league level includes some outstanding moves…

There’s something we certainly agree on. You don’t win that often by accident, even if it is the NL Central.

The Cardinals have a team that has aged poorly and have very little in their minor league tank.

It should be interesting to see how his replacement handles the situation.

Just, out.

Sorry, forgot to re-copy my Cubs column from our special section. I’ve added some links for your enjoyment as well:

The Chicago Cubs have history working for and against them as they prepare for their postseason run.

Of course, we are all too familiar with the forces working against them: Nary a day goes by that we aren’t reminded of the Curse of the Billy Goat wreaking havoc on Leon Durham in 1984, or Steve Bartman preventing Moises Alou from making a catch with one out in the eighth inning of the 2003 NLCS.

What so many people don’t know, though, is how much the Cubs have going for them. And history, for better or for worse, might just smile upon the North Siders this year.

Let’s flash back to 2006 for a quick minute. The Cardinals are 80-70 on Sept. 20 and lose their next six games. They back into the playoffs with just 83 victories, smoke the Padres in the NLDS, squeeze by the Mets 4-3 in the NLCS, and swiftly tame the Tigers in the World Series. Only the 63-victory Dodgers of the strike-shortened 1981 season won
fewer regular season games and went on to win the title.

The 2005 White Sox limped into the playoffs without much momentum and went on to an 11-1 postseason. Perhaps Billy Beane was on to something when he said the playoffs are almost entirely luck.

Only once since the introduction of the wild card has the winningest team gone on to win the World Series, and that was the 1998 Yankees — arguably the best team in baseball history.

OK, now let’s slowly bring ourselves back to the present. As of Sunday, only two teams in the National League playoff picture have a better run differential than the Cubs, and that’s the Padres and Rockies. The Rockies won, so the Cubs won’t have to deal with them until the NLCS, or at all.

The Cubs will be facing the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, and as far as I can tell, Chicago stacks up best against Arizona.

The D-backs have had a penchant for winning very close games and being blown out regularly. This is due, in large part, because the Snakes have such awful starting pitching. Brandon Webb is their only weapon in the rotation, and he’ll almost certainly start games one and four. The rest of the rotation (Doug Davis, 4.25 ERA; Livan Hernandez, 4.93; Micah Owings, 4.30; and Yusmeiro Petit, 5.02) includes, as the ERAs indicate, less than stellar options.

The Cubs will need to jump on Arizona’s starters to prevent the league’s best bullpen from shutting them down in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Some more Alfonso Soriano leadoff home runs would go a long way to help that cause.

But if there’s one thing, above all else, that the Cubs absolutely have to do if they want to have any chance of winning this thing, it’s to make good decisions. That starts with Lou Piniella.

I’ve watched with great admiration the way Piniella has handled the bullpen, and I hope he doesn’t change a thing. Carlos Marmol has been working the seventh and eighth innings instead of serving as the team’s closer, even though he’s the best reliever in the bullpen. This is a significant step for a manager nowadays, as most tend to designate the best reliever specifically for “saves.”

I respect Piniella for making that choice — it’s far more important to have the team’s best reliever preserving close games and small leads before the final three outs.

On the other hand, Piniella has made several personnel decisions that the most casual of baseball fans would call questionable.

The Cubs’ skipper may have felt some pressure to start Jason Kendall and Steve Trachsel during the regular season because they were specifically acquired to help down the stretch, but to start them now would be catastrophic. Neither player carries the numbers necessary to justify being in the major leagues, let alone starting (or playing) during the playoffs. Geovany Soto has certainly already deemed himself worthy enough of full-time starting duties behind the plate.

The other area of concern is the use of Craig Monroe, another midseason acquisition. Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry brought the Tigers outfielder to the Cubs to address the team’s need for a right-handed hitter with power. Given his splits against right- and left-handed pitching, Monroe has no business ever facing a righty. He has a very specific skill set, and Piniella needs to limit him to it.

History won’t be working against the Cubs when the playoffs begin on Wednesday. They control their own destiny.
Chicago has a great chance to bring another World Series title home, and if Piniella manages properly, the Cubs will enjoy a lengthy postseason.

If not, well, we can always blame a curse.

Just, out.

The wild card tiebreaker between the Padres and Rockies reminded me just why I love this game.

The best pitchers threw wildly, the best hitters put on a show, the rookies and bench warmers made big impacts, and above all, the underdog won.

The teams looked incredibly even matched and neither team was deserving of missing the playoffs. I picked the Padres to be in the World Series this year and I am a bit disappointed by that, but I’m also excited to see what the Rockies can do in the playoffs.

The shortened rotation should be a boon to the Rox, who really have few good options after Jeff Francis. No other starter went more than 166 innings on the season.

After the Yankees, though, I’m not sure there is a better offense out there, and what a rush it would be to see the Yanks and Rockies slug it out in the Fall Classic.

The Rockies are quite literally a wild card in the postseason, and I’m glad the Cubs won’t have to deal with both the Rockies and the Phillies on their way to a possible pennant.

I’ll get post-game analysis up as soon as I can after the games.

Enjoy the playoffs.

Just, out.

Like this one.

Editor’s note: After I finished writing this post I realized it became more of an indictment on how MVPs are chosen than a post about why Jimmy Rollins doesn’t deserve the MVP. Don’t worry, though, that’s still in here somewhere.

Over the last several weeks there has been more and more and more talk about Jimmy Rollins deserving consideration for National League MVP.

Does he deserve consideration? Sure. I hope the BBWAA considers everybody. Through Rob Neyer I came upon this terrific on Vegas Watch breaking down the NL MVP candidates.

The point there, which I am overwhelmingly inclined to agree with, is that Rollins is not even the most valuable Phillie, let alone more valuable than the likes of David Wright:

Is this really even worth discussing? As far as I can tell, the main thing in Rollins’ candidacy is this stupid 20-20-20-20 thing. Who cares? Can we talk about how the guy walks less than half as often as Wright, while having a lower slugging percentage and getting destroyed in BA, rather than his possible inclusion in some gimmicky club?

Of course, the voting doesn’t exactly go down the way logic would dictate it should. Justin Morneau won the MVP award last year despite being the third-most-valuable Minnesota Twin.

The Mets are imploding right now and Wright is going to be penalized by voters for this. See, the voters tend to misunderstand the term “Most Valuable.”

There are no restrictions on the award such as “MVP of a winning team” or “MVP of a playoff contending team.” To demonstrate just how fickle the voters are, let’s consider Albert Pujols.

I highly doubt Pujols will get many, if any, votes for MVP, mostly because the Cardinals were an afterthought from April-August, entered the conversation for a week, and now they’re an afterthought again. I wonder what jerseys the St. Louis IHOP waitresses are wearing now, considering the other St. Louis disappointment, who are already an afterthought.

Where was I? Oh, Pujols. Here’s a breakdown of Pujols and Wright, in categories the BBWAA generally consider important (once again, forgive its crudeness):

Player…….HR…RBI…..R……BB……SB…….BA……OBP…..SLG
Pujols………..32…101….97……98……2……..324…..429…….570
Wright…………30…105…110…..93……34…….322…..415…..548

I’m still trying to figure out why Wright has such an overwhelming advantage…stolen bases? Well, ok, I’ll concede stolen bases. But are stolen bases really the one thing that are keeping Pujols behind Wright, Rollins, Matt Holliday, and Chase Utley?

Now, I’m not saying I would cast my vote for Pujols, I just wanted to point out how being on a bad team eliminates you, not only from the running, but from all consideration.

What if we narrowed the conversation to first basemen? The general consensus seems to be that if the Brewers win the NL Central, Prince Fielder deserves the NL MVP.

Let’s revisit the breakdown:

Player…….HR…RBI…..R……BB……SB…….BA……OBP…..SLG
Pujols………….32…101….97……98……2……..327…..429…..570
Fielder…………50…119…108…..85……0……..290…..392…..622

Fielder has stranglehold on most of the counting categories, but Pujols is blowing him away in BA and OBP. And then of course there’s Fielding, which in spite of his name, waved bye bye to Mr. Fielder somewhere between his first tee-ball game and his father’s moonshot to break in New Comiskey Park.

And yet, Pujols is ignored from this conversation as well.

The Cardinals’ woes have taken the light off Pujols, who is putting together a fine year despite the drop from his previous totals. The Phillies’ surge has put the spotlight on Rollins, who is merely an icon of the team, and like I said, not even the most valuable Phillie.

The NL MVP is Wright and very little can change in the next three days to propel Utley, Holliday, or the other competitors (the least of which is Rollins) past him.

That doesn’t change the fact that Rollins is probably going to collect a ton of votes and maybe win the MVP. Despite all that I have said, if the Mets don’t hang on to first, Rollins could get the MVP.

And then I get to write an angry post.

Just, out.

In 2009 Illinois Field may be home to a minor league team, University officials announced Tuesday.

Matt Perry, the CEO of Denver-based National Sports Services said having a team in Champaign by 2009 is a realistic goal.

I don’t know about you, readers, but this is the most excited I’ve been since Norman Chad was syndicated.

For the full story, please see Thursday’s sports section or visit dailyillini.com.

Just, out.

On June 9, 2007, the Yankees signed Roger Clemens to a pro-rated, one year $28,000,000 contract.

The Yankees milked 17 starts out of Clemens, who finished with a 6-6 record. So I ask you: Is this the worst contract ever given out in baseball?

The only way redemption can come is if Clemens pitches the Yankees through he postseason and to a World Series.

Just, out.