Several weeks removed from the Illinois men’s basketball team’s first-round exit in the NCAA tourney, I’ve had some time to re-evaluate the future of the program. My initial reaction was to blame Bruce Weber; I questioned his coaching ability and recruiting skills. I called him a mid-major coach, at best. But after I’ve had a chance to cool off, I realize it was out of line to go after such an easy scapegoat when, in truth, Weber was one of few very special people who could have kept that team together after all it went through. It was cliche and trite and too easy to go after Weber immediately after the loss like everyone did.

Maybe more than any other sport at any level, the role of the coach on a college basketball team is absolutely vital to the success of the team. While I am not claiming you can throw any John Doe in a dugout or on a sideline, the direction a college basketball program heads in will live and die by the ability of its coach to recruit, teach, brainstorm Xs and Os and guide their small squad of less than 20 student-athletes.

So if the head basketball coach of a college team is so important, what is the outlook for the Illini? Let’s play some Fact or Fiction and see where Bruce stands.

Fact or Fiction: Bruce Weber can’t recruit.

Fiction … ish. Ok, a cop out, I know. But it is quite debatable. Weber’s signing class for 2007 is decent. But from the standpoint of a Big Ten school two years removed from a championship appearance, it’s definitely not what you would expect. Demetri McCamey will be a quick-impact point guard for a team that struggled to find a guard that can score by going to hoop. At 6′3′’, McCamey has better size than current point guard Chester Frazier, whose heart and hustle vastly outweigh his ability. His shot is skeptical according to scouts, but he can pass well (drive and dish to Shaun Pruitt/Brian Randle?). People are already saying he can be the next Deron Williams and should take over this team next year. He’s a solid recruit. As is Quinton Watkins, the Illini’s lastest signing. The kid out of Compton is a great slasher and had an excellent senior year. If Jamar Smith doesn’t return for legal reasons or getting excused from the team, Watkins will be an important signee. The other two in Weber’s class–Mike Tisdale and Bill Cole–look like the second coming of Nick Smith and MSU’s Mike Davis. Cole has a decent upside, but both are weak, skinny boys who won’t produce until their junior years.

So this class would be great for maybe, oh, I don’t know, Southern Illinois, but for Illinois, not that great. But to say it was because Weber is a bad recruiter just isn’t 100% accurate. Weber got screwed out of a top-10 class (1 five star, 2 four star 2 three star) when he lost Eric Gordon to Indiana. And, remember, Weber was in the running to snag Derrick Rose. Last year, he almost brought in John Scheyer. Yes, all these guys are local and you wonder why Weber can get them to put Illinois in their top three, but not sign them when UI is a big name basketball school. It seems Weber is lacking that extra edge in recruiting that has turned Bill Self, Coach K and even Tim Floyd into gurus. Maybe it’s cheap to make promises to a high school kid or sign their AAU coach, but if that’s what you have to do, DO IT. Still, it’s not fair to say he can’t recruit. Hopefully his recent failures will push him to go that extra mile.

Fact or Fiction: Bruce Weber can’t coach.

Fiction. One million percent fiction. Weber knows his players and he knows their strengths. Weber coached his way to UI with his performance at SIU. In 2003-04, he ran a forward based offense with Brian Cook. In 2004-05, the motion offense dominated with the three-guard lineup took over. In 2005-06, it was all about the Dee/Auggie slip screen. Last year, he knew he had a bunch of kids who lacked the talent that the rest of the Big Ten flashed, so he taught them defense. Weber has proved that he can adapt with no matter who he starts. Sure it all bases off the Gene Keady and motion offense philosophy, but he alters his style for the team he has. And he has won 20+ games in each of those seasons. So to say he can’t coach is just plain fiction.

Fact or Fiction: Bruce Weber will leave if another offer comes.

Fiction. Weber is loyal. The whole thing with Arkansas was blown way out of proportion. He’s no Self, Billy Gillespie or any other two-timing liar. He will be here as long as fans want him … but how long will that be?

Fact or Fiction: Athletic Director Ron Guenther will re-evaluate Bruce Weber’s job status after the 2007-08 season.

Fact. This one may be true. If the radio hosts and TV analysts keep ripping on Weber, Guenther will have to, at the very least, explore some other options, especially since his job may be in jeopardy following his conduct on the sidelines of the NCAA Tournament. Despite the Universities decision to support him, he’s on a shortened leash, make no mistake. But don’t expect much action. Guenther has stuck with Theresa Grentz as women’s basketball coach for quite sometime now, a big name signing who hasn’t brought much success in her decade-plus tenure. Guenther will back Weber as long as Assembly Hall sells out.

Fact or Fiction: Bruce Weber will lead this team to a Big Ten Title next year. 

Fiction. But it’s very possible. Wisconsin is getting weaker with Alando Tucker and Chris Rock, I mean, Kammron Taylor leaving, Ohio State will lose Greg Oden and, possibly, Mike Conley, Jr., and the rest of the Big Ten after that is pretty much even. Iowa stinks, Tubby Smith won’t turn Minnesota around that fast and MSU has Tom Izzo, but not much else. If Weber can utilize Pruitt and get more production out of Brian Randle, this team can win the Big Ten next year. But I don’t think it will.

Fact or Fiction: Bruce Weber will lead this team to the Final Four within the next five years.

Fiction. Looking at the recruits for the next few years and the people he is interested in and those recipricating interest, it doesn’t seem like Illinois will have the talent to go that far. But, if they were to, next year might be their best chance. If it can get out of the Big Ten without getting too beaten up, and Smith is allowed to play, this team has some talent. And if it can avoid injuries and trees on country roads, this team might actually have some depth. If Frazier moves back to the bench, he’ll be a nice little spark. Smith can shoot, Randle could be a star and Pruitt might be the best big man in the Big Ten (if Oden leaves). Brian Carlwell off the bench and a mature Trent Meacham and a few other decent (I use that word loosely) transfers and this team might have the depth necessary to go deep. We know Weber has them playing defense. Now, can they just score? I say it’s all depends on whether Weber can get 30 minutes out of Randle every night and get him to play at the level he’s capable of. Past record says he will, after all, Weber got Deron to bust out.

Fact or Fiction: Bruce Weber is the right guy for the Illini.

Fact. But with reservations. Weber needs to change some of his ways–his recruiting mentality, that area players should want to come to Illinois, is weak and he comes off as a jerk on the sideline to his players, but he doesn’t have the Bob Knight on-the-record jerk mentality to go along with it. But every single one of his players has left the program thankful for what he taught them. One thing Weber should never change is how he handles his players. He is a father figure to all of them in the way he treats them, respects them and develops them into better people, not just athletes. But, he needs to grow, too, and sometimes, grow up. The stomping around on the sidelines routine was fun at first, but now it comes off as childish to viewers and the refs. He needs to work the refs in a more effective way. However, dispite his shortcomings, Illini nation need to back him as their coach because he’s here for the long haul. And rightfully so.

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 12th, 2007 at 1:42 pm and is filed under Illini Basketball, College Basketball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.